Wall Street analysts are far from unified in their views of Rivian (RIVN +2.68%) stock. Some think shares will sink by 50% over the next 12 months. One, however, thinks shares will head significantly higher. His price target of $21 is 43% higher than where they trade now.
Why is this analyst so bullish? There are two main catalysts that could drive the stock upward in the near future.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
Rivian is about to reach its biggest growth milestone in years
It was Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas who set that $21 price target on Rivian shares last month, and he cited two key factors to justify his optimistic view. The first focused on the R2 -- Rivian's first affordable, mass-market model, which is expected to begin production in early 2026.
I've written a lot about how important it is for electric car companies to launch models priced under $50,000. Most buyers in the U.S. say they are looking to spend less than that on their next vehicle purchase. And these automakers' international growth will be even more dependent on their ability to get cheaper models to market. Right now, Rivian has just two models available for purchase: the R1T and R1S. Both have starting prices between $70,000 and $80,000. But after taxes, fees, and options are included, their total price tags can easily exceed $100,000. That's far too much for the vast majority of prospective buyers.
The R2 can change the game for Rivian. It's expected to debut at a starting price of around $45,000. Federal tax credits that could have brought the real price for buyers down by several thousand dollars were largely eliminated by President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" earlier this year. But while taxes, fees, and other options may ultimately bring the final price above the $50,000 mark, this will be Rivian's best chance yet to tap into a wider demographic with tens of millions of potential buyers.
The closest direct competitor to the R2 on the market today is arguably Tesla's Model Y, which has historically sold more than 1 million units annually. Rivian, for comparison, sold just 10,661 vehicles in total last quarter. With production of the R2 set to begin early next year, Rivian could soon become a household name. But there's one other exciting opportunity for the company that investors should be paying close attention to.
Image source: Getty Images
Is Rivian about to become an artificial intelligence juggernaut?
Analysts are excited about the potential to combine electric vehicle technology with artificial intelligence. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities believes AI alone will soon add significant value to Tesla's market cap. "We estimate the AI and autonomous opportunity is worth at least $1 trillion alone for Tesla," he commented earlier this year.
Tesla, of course, has invested heavily in autonomous driving technologies, and recently launched its robotaxi service in its first market: Austin, Texas. Rivian, however, has been fairly quiet about its AI ambitions. That should all change this fall when analysts expect the company to host an "AI and Autonomy Day" to reveal its full product roadmap and AI strategy. For now, we know little about what Rivian may announce. But given the attention Tesla has received for its AI ambitions, any significant news from Rivian on this front could provoke a strong reaction from the market.
For now, expectations for Rivian are fairly low. The company trades at a significant discount to peers like Tesla on a price-to-sales basis. But the R2's ramp up in production and updates on its AI ambitions could shift the narrative back to optimism. Uncertainty remains, but shares look like a reasonable bet for patient investors who are willing and able to hold onto them at least through the company's next few milestones.
