From July to September, there was a speculative frenzy surrounding shares in Opendoor Technologies (OPEN -3.73%). This frenzy peaked not too long after the real estate iBuyer announced the return of its co-founders to its board, as well as the appointment of a new chief executive officer. Since then, bullishness has simmered down, leading to a new round of losses.
After briefly touching prices north of $10 per share, the stock has since fallen back to about $7.25.
If you've yet to buy, you may be hesitant to hop in, given the sudden change in sentiment. However, while it may be best to invest in this stock on its fundamentals, not on predicting investor psychology, another big move for shares may be just weeks away.
Why? It all has to do with Opendoor's next quarterly earnings release, and more importantly, its latest updates to guidance.
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Opendoor: From "hot" to "not" to "hot again"
Opendoor, which utilizes technology to engage in large-scale house flipping, was a popular story stock during the pandemic-era bull market. The company went public in late 2020, via a merger with a SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) controlled by high-profile SPAC sponsor and tech financier Chamath Palihapitiya .
Opendoor performed well initially, but from 2021 to 2025, the share price collapsed, falling from $35 to less than $1. This was due to both the decline in popularity of speculative growth stocks, and Opendoor's own worsening financials due to the housing market slowdown.
This year, however, shares have bounced back in a big way, soaring 15-fold from their summer lows. Some company-specific news, such as the reappointment of co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu to the board, plus the appointment of former Shopify Chief Operating Officer Kaz Nejatian to the CEO role, have contributed to gains, but meme enthusiasm has arguably been the main driver.
Calling themselves the "$Open Army," a crowd of meme investors, heavily influenced by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson's social media postings, have had a greater influence on price action. This has held true at least until recently, as meme traders have started to take profit, and as even those previously holding with diamond hands lose faith in the shaky bull case.
Bull case highly uncertain
When I say Opendoor has a "shaky bull case," what I mean is that there is high uncertainty that the digital house-flipper's turnaround plan will pan out as expected. For one, a further rise for the stock based on fundamentals or improved results hinges on the housing market shifting back to robust from frozen.
Yet while the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, it's questionable whether it will ever slash them again to near zero. Those rock-bottom rates played a major role in driving housing market demand in 2020 and 2021. On the other hand, there may be a path for Opendoor to become profitable, even if there's only a partial housing rebound.
In a recent CNBC interview, Opendoor Chairman Rabois discussed how the company needs to reduce its workforce by 85%, from 1,400 employees to just 200 employees. Such aggressive cost-cutting measures, if coupled with growth from a housing rebound, could lead to steady profitability for Opendoor. Then again, maybe not. Remember that, during the 2021 housing boom, Opendoor reported heavy operating losses. Much still suggests house-flipping isn't an economically viable business model. Even when digitally based, it remains both capital- and labor-intensive.
A big move may lie ahead, but tread carefully
For now, it's best to assume that there's still more hype than substance to the Opendoor bull case. Tread carefully with this stock.
The company next announces earnings after the end of regular trading on Nov. 6. Even if the results themselves are underwhelming, any positive aspects in the earnings release, whether updates to guidance or new company announcements, could fuel a big move higher. Think more details about the cost-cutting plans, or any announcement regarding Opendoor's entry into a new line of business.
Conversely, however, those still holding Opendoor could view earnings as an opportunity to finally exit, selling on any negative aspect in the latest results and updates. While shares could rally higher, they could also sink lower after earnings day.
