Carnival (CCL +0.10%)(CUK 0.11%) stock has made an incredible rebound, and it's up 268% over the past three years. Investors who took the risk back then have been amply rewarded, but Carnival stock is still 61% off its all-time highs, and it could go a lot higher.
Let's see what's happening at Carnival and where it might be five years from now.
Image source: Carnival.
Revenue: Growing slowly
When revenue was at zero, Carnival stock looked risky, but there was also nowhere to go but up. Today, it has surpassed prepandemic highs and continues to increase. However, it's slow growing.
In the 2025 fiscal third quarter (ended Aug. 31), revenue increased just 4% year over year, although it was on lower capacity than the year before. The good news is, demand is at record highs, and Carnival is making the right moves to sustain momentum and keep sales growing. In five years, revenue is likely to be a lot higher than it is today, but expect lumpiness and low increases along the way.
Business: Meeting record demand
Demand continues to be solid, and Carnival breaks records for metrics across the board every quarter. It had record third-quarter deposits of $7.1 billion in the 2025 third quarter, $2.2 billion more than last year, and it's maintaining its historically high booking position. Carnival's 2026 bookings reached new historical highs, and half of next year is booked at high ticket prices.
It has several new ships on order for the next few years to meet all of this demand, and it's opening new, exclusive locations to keep it going. The company is enjoying both new business and repeat customers, and it has the highest reach of any cruise company in the Caribbean, Alaska, and Europe.
New ships and higher capacity should help it continue to hit new records and generate higher sales over the next five years.
NYSE: CCL
Key Data Points
Profits: Surpassing highs
Profitability has trailed the rebound in sales over the past few years, but it's also now hitting new highs. Carnival reported a record $2 billion in adjusted net income in the third quarter, and management is guiding for full-year net income to increase 55% over last year's figure. Wall Street expects earnings per share (EPS) of $2.16 this year, up from $1.42 last year, and $2.42 in 2026.
As sales keep going higher, and Carnival sells more tickets at higher prices, it should be able to maintain robust profitability over the next five years.
Debt: Closing the gap
Carnival's debt remains higher than its historical levels at $26.5 billion as of the end of the third quarter. However, that's down from its peak of $35 billion in 2023, which means it's paid off nearly $10 billion over the past two years.
Carnival also continues to refinance the remainder to save money on interest payments and pay it back even faster. Over the next five years, it could pay back enough to get the debt in line with historical levels, or at least be in striking distance.
Stock: Beating the market?
Carnival hit its previous high of nearly $65 in 2017, and that's more than double today's price. The S&P 500 has nearly doubled over the past five years, and if it does that again, Carnival stock would have to more than double to beat the market.
Can it? If it continues at its current pace, it's likely. The most important piece is the debt. Right now, because of its high debt, Carnival stock trades at a low forward, 1-year P/E ratio of less than 12. That gives it some room for expansion, and if net income continues to climb higher as the debt shrinks, Carnival could end up being a market-beating stock.
