Eli Lilly (LLY 0.69%) ranked as one of the hottest big pharma stocks on the market in recent years. However, the sizzle has fizzled so far in 2025.
The drugmaker has an opportunity to change its narrative when it reports 2025 third-quarter results next week. Should you buy Eli Lilly stock before Oct. 30?
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What Wall Street expects from Lilly
Wall Street analysts predict exceptionally strong Q3 results for Lilly. The average revenue estimate is roughly $16 billion, a year-over-year increase of 40.5%.
Earnings estimates, though, are all over the map. The average estimate is for Lilly to report Q3 earnings per share (EPS) of $5.92. But this average includes a pessimistic projection of $5.49 per share and a highly optimistic estimate of $7.21 per share. Still, all analysts look for Lilly's earnings to grow by leaps and bounds compared to the $1.18 per share reported in the third quarter of 2024.
The consensus numbers reflect accelerating growth. In 2025 Q2, Lilly's revenue jumped 38% year over year, while its adjusted EPS soared 61%.
There's no mystery about which products should drive Lilly's growth in Q3. Type 2 diabetes drug Mounjaro and obesity drug Zepbound together generate around 55% of the company's total revenue. Both blockbuster drugs will almost certainly continue to enjoy strong momentum when Lilly reports its Q3 results next week.
If recent history is a guide...
You'd expect that if Lilly beats analyst estimates, its stock will jump. If the company falls short, its stock will fall. However, if recent history is a guide, that's not necessarily how things will play out.
Over the last four quarters, Lilly has topped estimates twice and missed estimates twice. The stock's performance following these quarterly updates didn't always pan out as you might have expected.
NYSE: LLY
Key Data Points
For example, Lilly topped the average EPS estimate by 5% when it reported 2024 fourth-quarter results on Feb. 6, 2025. The healthcare stock inched up the next day, but quickly gave up all its gains.
Lilly announced its 2025 first-quarter results on May 1, 2025. The drugmaker's adjusted EPS was lower than the consensus Wall Street estimate by around 5.7%. Did the pharma stock fall after this miss? Nope, it rose afterward -- at least temporarily.
On Aug. 7, 2025, Lilly reported Q2 earnings results that were 12.9% higher than the average estimate. That might seem to be the perfect setup for the company's share price to soar. However, Lilly's stock instead declined slightly before rebounding.
Has the big pharma stock behaved as you'd expect it would at any point in recent history? Yes, but only once. Lilly announced its 2024 Q3 results on Oct. 30, 2024. Its adjusted EPS was roughly 19.5% below consensus estimates. Lilly's stock fell in the immediate aftermath of the disappointing quarterly results.
Think long term
There are several reasons why Lilly's stock performance might not align with expectations following its Q3 update next week. Sometimes, the so-called whisper number is more important than the official analyst estimates. The company could also provide information in its earnings call that investors view as more important than its quarterly revenue and earnings results.
Because of these wild cards, I don't think investors need to rush to buy Lilly stock before Oct. 30. Instead, the best approach is to think long term. If you believe that Lilly's prospects over the next 10 or more years are promising (which I do, by the way) and plan to hold the stock, whether you buy shares before or after its next quarterly update won't matter very much.
