S&P Global (SPGI 0.54%) is often considered an evergreen investment because it provides essential financial data, credit rating, and analytics services for all the Fortune 100 companies and 80% of the Fortune 500 companies. But over the past 12 months, its stock rose just 1%.
S&P Global probably didn't stand out as investors focused on the market's more exciting growth plays. Yet it's still growing much faster than many other financial stocks -- and it's arguably a great safe haven play in this frothy market. Let's see if this oft-overlooked stock is worth buying ahead of its third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 30.
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Understanding S&P Global's business
S&P Global holds a near-duopoly with its smaller competitor Moody's (MCO 0.87%) in the financial data and credit rating services market. Big banks, insurance companies, corporations, universities, and institutional investors regularly use those services to make major financial decisions.
NYSE: SPGI
Key Data Points
S&P Global's services are essential in both bull and bear markets. However, its credit rating business is still sensitive to inflation, interest rate spikes, and other macro headwinds, which can all curb the market's near-term demand for fresh debt offerings. That's why its revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth was a bit choppy over the past several years.
|
Metric |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
1H 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue Growth (YOY) |
11% |
11% |
35% |
12% |
14% |
7% |
|
Adjusted EPS Growth (YOY) |
23% |
17% |
(4%) |
13% |
25% |
9% |
In 2022 and 2023, rising interest rates throttled the growth of its credit rating business and reduced its revenues and profits. The sale of its Engineering Solutions business in May 2023 exacerbated that pressure. But in 2024, its growth stabilized again as it lapped that big divestment and the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rates three times.
In the first half of 2025, S&P Global's top and bottom growth cooled again. That slowdown was largely caused by several unpredictable macroeconomic headwinds -- including tariffs, trade conflicts, military conflicts, and the Fed's hesitancy to further reduce its benchmark rates -- which all curbed the market's appetite for its analytics and credit rating services. But for the full year, it still expects its revenue to rise 5% to 7% as its adjusted EPS grows 8% to 10% to $17.00 to $17.25.
Could S&P Global raise its full-year guidance?
At $495 per share, S&P Global's stock looks reasonably valued (but not cheap) at 29 times the midpoint of this year's adjusted EPS forecast. Moody's, which expects to grow its adjusted EPS at a faster rate of 17% this year, trades at 34 times that estimate.
When Moody's posted its Q3 earnings report on Oct. 22, it significantly raised its full-year EPS guidance from its previous outlook for 8% to 12% growth. It attributed that rosier outlook to the growth of its core ratings and analytics businesses. The Fed's first interest rate cut of 2025, which occurred in mid-September, and its widely expected second rate cut on Oct. 29, could generate additional tailwinds for both of those businesses through the end of the year.
Therefore, S&P Global could raise its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to reflect those lower rates and a warmer macro environment when it posts its Q3 earnings. If that happens, its stock could look a lot cheaper -- and it would attract more bullish investors. Its planned spin-off of S&P Global Mobility (which provides automotive data through CARFAX and other services) could further streamline its business and boost its earnings when it closes in 2026.
S&P Global's forward dividend yield of 0.8% won't attract any serious income investors, but it's still a Dividend King that has raised its payout annually for more than half a century. That impressive streak indicates that its business can easily weather any near-term and long-term challenges.
Should you buy S&P Global's stock before its next earnings report?
S&P Global isn't a high-growth stock that will attract a stampede of bulls anytime soon. But if it exceeds analysts' estimates and raises its full-year earnings guidance during its Q3 report on Oct. 30, I believe its stock will stop trading sideways and finally rise again.
