Rivian Automotive (RIVN +0.62%) shares are up 23% over the past 24 hours. There are two reasons for the big move, one of which could presage even more growth in 2026.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
1. Rivian's sales grew 78% last quarter
It was an exciting quarter for Rivian when it came to sales growth, which came in 78% higher than the same quarter one year ago, reaching $1.55 billion. Rivian struggled with flatlining sales growth for nearly two years. No new model introductions launched over that time period, so this much sales growth might have you asking what catalyst made it possible.
The most obvious catalyst involves federal tax credits, which effectively lowered the price of a new EV by up to $7,500. While Rivian didn't qualify for the incentive directly, consumers were able to take advantage via lease deals. In short, these customers -- who may have otherwise made a purchase next month, next quarter, or even not at all -- accelerated their decisions in order to take advantage of these tax credits before they expired on Sept. 30.
Image source: The Motley Fool
2. New, affordable EVs are on the way
Federal tax credits helped lower the price of EVs for consumers. Without them, EV makers like Rivian will need to find a way to keep prices low themselves. And that's exactly what Rivian is set to achieve next year when production begins on three new affordable models: the R2, R3, and R3X. All are expected to have a starting price point under $50,000 -- more than $20,000 cheaper than Rivian's existing models.
This week, management confirmed that the R2 will begin production in the first half of 2026. Production will be small at first, but scale quickly in the back half of 2026, with mass production achieved by 2027. While the sales pop is encouraging, it will likely prove a one-time event. The potential of Rivian's R2 model, however, could reinvigorate growth sustainably beginning next year.
