Market cycles are a lot like seasons, because you can often feel a chill in the air well before the first snowflake lands. On that note, October's crypto storm delivered that first shock of cold, complete with the flash crash on Oct. 10, and pessimism has spread fast. Investors are now arguing that the new bear market has arrived, and that everyone should head for shelter.
The case sounds plausible. This October was the first negative October for Bitcoin (BTC 2.75%) in years, and nearly all major crypto assets are still smarting, well below their highs before the flash crash, including leaders like Ethereum (ETH 4.37%), Solana (SOL 3.74%), and XRP (XRP 5.23%), among many others. Even the strongest coins look winded right now -- so is this the start of a bear market, or worse, another crypto winter?
Image source: Getty Images.
The sell-off has been brutal, but it's not the only factor in play
There's no point in denying that October hurt. The flash crash on Oct. 10 was the largest single-day wipeout on record for the entire crypto asset class, an order of magnitude larger than past episodes. Plus, Bitcoin notched its first decline in an October since 2018, a down month that dented confidence after a string of strong gains; the past 30 days' decline of 19% is concerning (as of Nov. 6), but it came at a time when sentiment was already fragile.
But one month isn't a clear sign of a bear market.
Zoom out a bit, and the picture is still mixed. Solana is down by 20% this year so far, Chainlink is down 33%, and, while they're up for the year, Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum have all failed to outperform the stock market's gain of 14% this year so far. When considering the mix of bullish catalysts that the crypto sector, as well as these specific coins, got this year, that weak performance is indeed pretty surprising, and it makes sense for investors to be concerned.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
For instance, the same month that produced the flash crash also featured the single largest weekly inflow into global crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on record, with an inflow of $5.9 billion in the first seven days, led by Bitcoin and also meaningful allocations to Ethereum. Flows turned choppy after the shock, but the pattern was not wholesale flight.
Aside from significant capital inflows, the macroeconomic picture is more likely to improve than to worsen.
CRYPTO: ETH
Key Data Points
The Federal Reserve just announced it will end quantitative tightening (QT) on Dec. 1, and paired that announcement with an interest rate cut. The result of that shift will be an inflow of liquidity into the crypto financial system.
Liquidity is not a guarantee of higher crypto prices, but ending the active removal of liquidity via QT removes a persistent headwind. In other words, whereas October felt wintry, the policy forecast is for balmy weather. And that's what ultimately makes it hard to believe that crypto is going to enter into a deep bear market right now, though short-term weakness is probably going to continue for at least a while longer.
CRYPTO: SOL
Key Data Points
How to invest through this stretch
But what if there is a crypto bear market, regardless of the positive catalysts and a macro backdrop that's set to improve soon?
The thing to remember is that bear markets often mint the best long-term entries for investors. For most, the crypto portfolio anchor in these uncertain times is Bitcoin.
It has the simplest and most reliable long-term investment thesis based on its programmatically increasing scarcity over time, the deepest ETF adoption, and it also benefits most from easier liquidity. It has also held up the best in these inclement conditions so far. Continue dollar-cost averaging (DCAing) into Bitcoin on a set schedule rather than trying to time the market, and you will be building the foundation for your portfolio's health regardless of the market conditions. If you're willing to take selective risks even when conditions are fragile, Ethereum and Solana both should earn a look for potentially buying on dips, or, if you're looking to accumulate a larger allocation, DCAing.
Could this still morph into a classic bear market?
Yes, especially if the currently abysmal sentiment among crypto-native investors ends up spreading somehow to the institutional investors on Wall Street who are finally starting to warm up to crypto.
But panic-selling is absolutely not the right response at the moment, even if things get somewhat more grim in the coming weeks. As always, the best game plan over the long term is to commit to rules-based accumulation of the highest-quality assets in the sector, while keeping more speculative bets modest.
