Forget tech titans and market darlings. If I could only own one stock forever, I'd consider a warehouse that charges admission. And not just any of the warehouse clubs, but the best of the bunch. I'm talking about Costco Wholesale (COST 0.09%), of course.
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Costco's collection of carbon-copy concepts
Costco combines the best qualities of several classic business strategies. The resulting retail king is kind of hard to beat.
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Remember 1999, when Salesforce (CRM +0.28%) revolutionized the software sector by relying on recurring subscriptions instead of buy-once licenses? Costco had been collecting annual membership fees for 16 years already.
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You know the old quip about McDonalds (MCD +0.42%) being a real estate company that also happens to sell burgers? Well, Costco is really a premium club where you also can buy some stuff at a deep discount. The goods carry razor-thin profit margins, and Costco's real cash machine is found in the membership program.
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Netflix (NFLX +0.60%) and Amazon Prime Video (AMZN +0.56%) have the most loyal customers in the video-streaming business, with annual churn rates as low as 8% to 9%. You know who else sports yearly churn figures in that ultra-loyal range? Yep, that would be Costco.
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Membership fees enable Costco's low in-store item prices, and the deep savings have some interesting effects. In a weak or unpredictable economy, people shop at Costco to save money. They keep doing the same thing in good times too, after experiencing the company's affordable name-brand goods under a tight budget. That sounds a lot like Walmart's (WMT +0.91%) business plan, but even Sam Walton's retail empire hasn't held hot dog prices at $1.50 since 1985.
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I didn't even mention how much store-building legroom Costco has. With just 914 warehouses in operation and an 85% focus on North America, Costco can build thousands of warehouses before saturating the global market. By comparison, Walmart has nearly 11,000 stores these days and nearly half of them are abroad.
Good artists borrow and great ones steal, right? Costco has carbon-copied the best ideas from many different industries. I could keep going with that list, but you get the drift already. Costco runs a low-margin retail business but the membership program generates tons of profits anyway. And the company can do it all while paying above-average salaries and offering strong employee benefits. There are real business benefits to these policies, as well -- Costco's employees are about as loyal as its customers.
Costco isn't just smart business, it's a lifestyle
Costco would be a great short-term investment if these qualities were brand new and largely unproven, especially if share prices were low. What makes Costco a stock to own forever is the long-lasting commitment to this unique strategy mix.
The company has even gamified the shopping experience. Finding the best deals in its gigantic warehouses is a bit of a sport. Then you want to maximize the membership rewards and the cash-back feature of the official Costco credit card -- a Visa (V 0.32%) product managed by Citigroup (C 0.06%).
As a result, perhaps the greatest Costco game of all is finding an empty spot in the parking lot. I mean, it's kind of a downside for Costco's customers, since a normal Tuesday night at Costco usually feels like the holiday rush at the local shopping mall. Still, the constant customer traffic is definitely an upside for Costco and its investors.
NASDAQ: COST
Key Data Points
I'd still buy Costco stock at a premium price
Some might say that Costco's stock is too expensive to buy today. It trades at 51 times trailing earnings and 52 times free cash flows, having gained a market-beating 160% over the last 5 years.
Sure, Costco may not be the best investment for strictly value-focused stock pickers. I get the irony of the deep-discount retailer's shares selling at a premium price, possibly scaring away the same people who gladly pay a fee to go shopping in its stores.
At the same time, Costco's stock has traded sideways in recent months, mostly due to the premium valuation in a price-sensitive economy. The company is poised to perform in good times and bad times. Costco is a great stock to buy at pretty much any price and hold for decades.
