Rivian Automotive (RIVN +0.07%) stock exploded 25% higher after it reported third-quarter earnings Nov. 4. Obviously, the results were positive. But whether you're a Rivian investor or own shares of other electric vehicle (EV) stocks like Tesla or Lucid Group, there are two important updates to look at.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
1. Rivian sales surged due to this obvious catalyst
For some analysts, the biggest positive news delivered during earnings was Rivian's 78% spike in revenue. Revenue hit $1.56 billion compared to estimates of around $1.49 billion, partly due to higher-than-expected deliveries. I speculated that this might be the case in October, since federal tax credits for new EV purchases expired at the end of September. Potential EV buyers were forced into action in order to take advantage of expiring subsidies, meaning those who were on the fence were incentivized to make purchases last quarter. The result: a big surge in quarterly sales versus the year prior.
Here's the catch: Rivian's existing models -- the R1T and R1S -- didn't even qualify for federal tax credits this year, since their batteries did not have enough material components sourced or manufactured in North America. Consumers were still able to access the subsidy via lease deals, however, and expiring tax credits likely spurred people to consider EVs overall, even those that didn't qualify.
Image source: Rivian Automotive.
Regardless of where its buyers came from, Rivian won't benefit from this one-time sales surge again. The company didn't release a new product to warrant this sales spike. Nor did it offer special deals or financing. The sales pop was generated by potential buyers being incentivized to finalize a purchase decision this quarter, pulling forward buyers that will no longer be there in future quarters. "October is going to be a bit of a funky month, because you had so much pull forward," Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe explained.
This "pull forward" could actually create a drag on future earnings reports unless Rivian generates a new buying opportunity. Fortunately, that's exactly what the company announced in its earnings call with analysts.
2. Next year could be a blockbuster for Rivian
The most exciting thing an EV company can do is release a vehicle priced under $50,000. According to surveys, roughly 70% of Americans are hoping to spend less than $50,000 on their next vehicle purchase. But the availability of EVs under this price point is limited. Right now, Tesla dominates the mass market. Its Model Y and Model 3 vehicles alone comprise more than 90% of Tesla's vehicle revenue.
That's what makes Rivian's recent announcement so exciting. The company's two current models can easily cost more than $100,000 overall, depending on options. That prices out a huge portion of the market. But this week, Rivian announced that its R2 model -- expected to debut with a price under $50,000 -- remains on track to begin production early next year. "We plan to start saleable builds and deliveries in the first half of '26," the company's CFO, Claire McDonough, said.
"The average new vehicle purchase price in the United States is now just over $50,000, and the most popular configuration is a 5-seat SUV or crossover," Scaringe added. "Given the attractiveness of this addressable market, I believe R2 is addressing the largest market opportunity with the right product."
McDonough did suggest caution when it comes to the sales ramp. "We would steer folks to there being limited volumes in the first half of the year," she said. "And then the second half of the year will build up our ramp and see increasing production volumes throughout the second half of the year and then into 2027, where we'll first be in a position to have fully optimized the 215,000 sort of run rate units of capacity that we have established within the normal facility."
However, even with a slow sales ramp, on-time production is a big win for Rivian.
