Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have been the prevailing sector in the stock market since 2023, and for good reason. Companies are spending a ton of money on computing capacity to ensure they are prepared for the AI revolution that's ongoing. However, there's another trend that's popping up that's ancillary to AI: quantum computing. Quantum computing stocks have been massive winners so far in 2025, but have taken a bit of a break as market sentiment has cooled off.
However, that could change over the next few weeks as fund managers prepare their portfolios for what's next in 2026. If the market shifts back to a more risk-on environment, then stocks like Rigetti Computing (RGTI +0.91%) could be primed to soar 67% back to its all-time high of around $56.
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The quantum computing trend is starting to heat up
The first thing to know about the quantum computing industry is that we're still a few years out from useful quantum computing technology. However, that's not stopping companies from investing in the technology. Rigetti Computing has actually sold two quantum computing units totaling $5.7 million to two clients for early stage use. There is clearly excitement surrounding quantum computing, and companies are racing to get their quantum strategies implemented so they can easily transition once commercially viable quantum computing technology is available.
So, even though useful quantum computing technology is still a few years out, companies like Rigetti Computing are going to see investor interest, as well as product sales, as they continue to develop viable quantum computing solutions.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
One recent announcement that will ease this transition is the NVQLink from Nvidia (NVDA +1.68%). This device will connect quantum computing units to existing accelerated computing networks that have already been constructed, allowing companies like Rigetti to interface with Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs). This is a key step in the process, as hybrid quantum computing is likely to be the most successful approach. Rigetti Computing is one of the few companies that can connect to the NVQLink, showcasing its leadership position in the quantum computing industry.
But will it be able to soar 67% to close the year out?
Market sentiment will drive Rigetti's stock price
The reality is, there's not a lot that Rigetti can do to move its stock price. While it will be announcing incremental technological breakthroughs and strategic partnerships continuously, nothing significant will come out that will increase the stock price by 67%. Instead, it will be market sentiment that drives the stock up or down.
If the market wants to assume some risk heading into 2026, then I think it's likely that Rigetti Computing's stock will soar, as fund managers will want to show clients that they're investing in the hottest growth stocks on the market. On the flip side, if the market is a bit more risk-averse, Rigetti Computing's slide could continue, making it better for investors to just sit on the sidelines.
So, which is more likely? I think it all comes down to three events: The government shutdown, a China trade deal, and another interest rate cut. All three of these things are hanging over the market's head, and an unforeseeable outcome in any one of these three situations could send stocks tumbling some more. Personally, I think we'll see some resolution in most of these areas by early December, and that could ignite a rally to end the year.
But if any one of these events has a poor outcome, don't be surprised to see Rigetti Computing's stock sell-off continue. We're still a long way away from commercially viable quantum computing. Until Rigetti is continuously shipping viable products, any investment will be subject to massive volatility that's out of the company's control.
