Morgan Stanley projected in its 2018 urban air mobility framework that the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market could reach $1.5 trillion by 2040, with an even more bullish scenario calling for $2.9 trillion. Those numbers have investors intrigued, and Archer Aviation (ACHR 4.44%) has emerged as one of the most popular ways to play the theme. The stock has surged 84% over the past 12 months despite a recent sell-off across small caps, as the company races toward Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification.
However, Archer has just done something that's dividing the investment community. The company spent $126 million to acquire Hawthorne Airport's fixed-base operator and effectively take control of the remaining 30 years on the airport's master lease, adding an 80-acre property to its balance sheet through 2055. CEO Adam Goldstein called it "a generational opportunity to control a key airport and build the first purpose-built eVTOL hub at the center of a world-class aviation corridor," in an email statement.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is this a savvy strategic move that creates a competitive moat, or is Archer burning precious cash on real estate when it should be focused on getting its aircraft certified?
The case for infrastructure control
Here's what Archer bought. Hawthorne Airport sits less than three miles from LAX and is the closest airport to downtown Los Angeles, SoFi Stadium, Intuit Dome, and The Forum. The deal effectively gives Archer control of the remaining 30 years of Hawthorne's master lease, which runs through 2055, with a total value of up to $171 million, including development rights and the airport's fixed-base operator.
Goldstein painted an ambitious vision. "We envision Hawthorne as L.A.'s Grand Central Station for air taxis, the centerpiece of our Southern California network, where passengers will one day seamlessly fly above L.A. congestion on predictable five to fifteen minute routes between key destinations, including Hollywood, Downtown, and Orange County."
NYSE: ACHR
Key Data Points
The bull case starts with geography. You can't build more airports three miles from LAX. In 2024, construction began on just 24 vertiports globally, while China committed to over 100 vertiport sites in Guangdong Province alone by 2027. Western markets struggle with fragmented infrastructure development, and Archer just eliminated that problem for Los Angeles.
The timing matters, too. Archer has been named the Official Electric Air Taxi Provider for the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games, with plans to operate its Midnight aircraft during the Games, pending certification, and showcasing operations to approximately 15 million attendees.
The skeptic's view
But here's the counterargument: Archer doesn't have a certified aircraft yet. The company targets late 2025 or early 2026 for FAA Type Certification; however, regulatory delays are common in the aviation industry. Buying airport infrastructure before proving commercial operations is premature.
The $126 million up-front cost might have been better spent on accelerating certification or building additional aircraft for testing. Archer's most recent quarterly net loss was about $130 million, so the Hawthorne purchase is roughly equivalent to a quarter's worth of current losses.
Traditional airlines don't own airports -- they pay landing fees and gate leases. The capital-light model preserves cash for core operations. Archer is doing the opposite, taking on a capital-intensive real estate position that requires ongoing maintenance and development costs.
Beyond passenger flights
Archer is positioning Hawthorne as more than a landing pad. The facility becomes an innovation hub for artificial intelligence (AI)-powered management of air traffic and ground operations.
Hawthorne provides Archer with a dedicated testbed for the AI-powered operations it is co-developing with Palantir Technologies, as well as for its U.S. Air Force and Anduril-linked defense programs, rather than attempting to integrate experimental workflows into crowded third-party environments.
United Airlines already backs Archer and sees value in these operational systems for existing hub airport operations. If successful, those systems could be licensed to traditional airports globally.
There's also a defense angle. Archer holds U.S. Air Force contracts and partnered with Anduril Industries to develop hybrid vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft for military applications. The Hawthorne facility offers space for both commercial and defense programs to be pursued simultaneously.
The verdict
So does the Hawthorne acquisition make sense? It depends on which eVTOL thesis you believe.
For investors who already accept that commercial eVTOL operations will scale in Los Angeles by the late 2020s, Hawthorne tilts Archer's story in a positive direction by securing the scarcest asset in the L.A. market. The company's $2 billion-plus in total liquidity provides a runway of three to four years at current loss rates.
But for investors skeptical about certification timelines or mass adoption, this deal raises the stakes. The $126 million airport purchase accounted for roughly a quarter of the company's losses, which were already substantial, given its minimal revenue.
