In some businesses, CEOs can wade into politics without fearing a consumer backlash. On the left, George Soros doesn't need to raise capital from Republican voters. On the right, boycotts of Koch Industries would be difficult since its asphalt, electronic components, advanced fabrics, and other products aren't consumer-facing.
But in the consumer discretionary sector, it's a different story. Anyone can change their beer order on a dime, as Anheuser-Busch InBev discovered when Bud Light lost its crown as America's top-selling beer after backlash from a 2023 advertising campaign. It's the same with fast food, which may be why Chick-fil-A's CEO expressed regret for linking his company to the culture wars.
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Electric vehicles are as "consumer discretionary" as it gets. Consumers can even opt out of buying them entirely, as around 90% of U.S. drivers still did as of early 2025.
So, in a nation where 75 million people voted for Kamala Harris for president, has Tesla CEO Elon Musk's full-throated support for President Donald Trump cost Tesla (TSLA 2.97%)?
A study by four Yale University professors found that since 2022, Tesla saw a sharp decline in sales in blue counties that wasn't offset by gains in red areas. The researchers concluded that Musk's political activities cost the company 1.26 million vehicles sold.
It's a rigorous study, but it's still just one study. Are signs of this brand damage showing up in Tesla's balance sheets? Here's what the numbers say.
How were Tesla sales last year?
In the fourth quarter of 2024, with the election in full swing and political sensitivities at their highest, Tesla reported an 8% decrease in car sales year-over-year. For Q1 2025, as Musk came to be seen as a key player in the Trump administration, revenue from car sales fell 20% year-over-year. Third-quarter sales saw a spike, up 6% from the previous year, but that was most likely caused by buyers rushing to complete purchase before a $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired Sept. 30.
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
Tesla bulls might point out that, over the span of Musk's three-year political journey, which began in 2022, Tesla saw a 67% increase in revenue and a 43% rise in net income before taxes. Those increases are well above the 20% inflation that has taken place since 2021.
However, Tesla's profits took a hit in 2024, falling from $15 billion in 2023 to $7.1 billion, and annual sales fell 1.8 million from 2023. That was the first decline in car sales that Tesla experienced in 12 years, which is striking considering that Tesla cut prices. It's strong evidence that the Yale study is correct that political brand damage hurt Tesla sales.
Is Tesla a buy today?
In the month following Election Day last November, Tesla shares rose 69%, as traders priced in the expected value of a CEO with the president-elect's ear. With hindsight, the rally appears misguided, as the Trump administration seems to have harmed Tesla on balance.
According to J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman, Tesla could lose over half of its annual earnings from the administration's policies, like the loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. As one company executive told The Financial Times, "There's no question that Tesla will be hit harder than most."
Yet Tesla is more than just a car company. In 2024, roughly 10% of its revenue came from energy generation and storage, while 10.5% came from other services. Musk has said that 80% of Tesla's value will one day come from its Optimus robots, which would begin mass production in late 2026 at the earliest. During last quarter's earnings call, Musk said Optimus has the potential to be "the biggest product of all time."
Tesla has several paths to glory, and any brand damage from politics is already priced into shares. But their price-to-earnings ratio of 312 is, for such an established company, a little too steep for me. With so many question marks around the company, from the success or failure of Optimus to the battle for market share, Tesla's "priced for perfection" valuation seems unreasonable. I'm taking a "wait and see" approach on the stock.
