Oklo (OKLO 4.97%) has crushed the market this year.
After a lackluster 2024, in which it dropped more than 50% at the end of its first day of trading (May 10), Oklo shares went nuclear (pun intended) in 2025. At one point, the stock was up well over 700% on the year.
NYSE: OKLO
Key Data Points
Since hitting about $193 a share in October, Oklo has fallen to just $83, as worries over an AI bubble have soured sentiment toward nuclear stocks.
With a pullback like that, an investment of $1,000 in Oklo stock might seem like an opportunity. Before you consider this pre-revenue start-up, though, it's worth weighing the bull case against the bear case.
Image source: Getty Images.
Oklo: Hype, or tomorrow's power?
The bull case for Oklo is easy to understand: AI needs round-the-clock power, and nuclear energy has the potential to supply it.
It can do this through its microreactor design, the Aurora powerhouse. Smaller and cheaper to build than traditional nuclear power plants, these powerhouses are expected to deliver up to 75 megawatts of continuous power. The reactor will be factory-built and assembled on-site to cut down construction time.
Oklo is targeting clients who need off-grid power, like AI data center operators. It has announced collaborations with big names in the field, such as Equinix, Vertiv, and Liberty Energy.
The bear case for Oklo is just as easy to understand.
The company has no revenue. More importantly, it lacks regulatory approval to operate its powerhouses commercially. While it's been making progress on that front (thanks to the Pilot Reactor Program), the lack of commercial revenue makes its current $12 billion market valuation seem outlandish.
Sure, investors are betting on future cash flow in an era of AI. But with no revenue expected next year, and about $16 million projected for 2027, I'd expect Oklo to need a fresh cash injection (read: dilution) before it generates meaningful revenue.
OKLO Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
As such, a $1,000 investment in Oklo is best for money you can afford to lose.
