Nebius (NBIS 3.70%) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI 2.64%) represent two distinct investment options in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence (AI) market. Nebius provides cloud-based AI infrastructure services to companies with don't want to upgrade their on-premise servers. Super Micro Computer, more commonly known as Supermicro, builds those dedicated AI servers.
Both of these stocks are volatile, but which one is the better long-term play on the AI market? Let's compare their business models, growth rates, and valuations to determine the differences.
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The differences between Nebius and Supermicro
Nebius was once known as Yandex, which owned Russia's top search engine and a broad range of related websites and applications. The sanctions against Russia forced it to suspend its shares in early 2022, so it relocated its business to Amsterdam, spun off its Russian assets, and rebranded itself as Nebius -- a pure play provider of cloud-based AI infrastructure services.
Nebius now operates one first-party data center in Finland and leases additional data centers through colocation deals in the U.S., France, and Iceland. It's currently building its second first-party data center in New Jersey, and it recently signed another colocation deal in the UK. It promotes itself as a "full-stack" AI infrastructure company that integrates managed software services into its data centers while providing customized AI services for the data training, edtech, and robotics markets. That sets it apart from other cloud-based GPU providers, such as CoreWeave (CRWV 2.56%), which primarily processes GPU-intensive tasks.
NASDAQ: NBIS
Key Data Points
Supermicro is an underdog in the data center server market compared to Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE +0.58%) and Dell (DELL +1.72%). Still, it rolled out its own liquid-cooled AI-optimized servers before its larger competitors. Its partnership with Nvidia (NVDA 1.53%) also granted it access to a steady supply of the chipmaker's top-tier data center GPUs. It controlled about 9% of the dedicated AI server market in 2024, according to ABI Research.
Supermicro grew rapidly as the AI market expanded. However, it struggled with a delayed 10-K filing, the abrupt departure of its auditor amid accounting issues, delisting threats, and regulatory probes last year. Those headwinds weighed down its stock, but it eventually hired a new auditor, filed its overdue 10-K, dodged a delisting, and seemingly placated the regulators. However, it's facing tougher competition as HPE and Dell roll out more AI-optimized servers.
NASDAQ: SMCI
Key Data Points
Which company is growing faster?
In 2024, Nebius' revenue surged 462% to $118 million, but its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at negative $266 million.
For 2025, analysts expect its revenue to soar 373% to $556 million as its adjusted EBITDA improves to negative $75 million. It had already sold out of all its available capacity by the end of the third quarter, but it's still racking up steep losses as it expands its infrastructure.
Nebius expects to generate an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026. That wording might seem vague, but it means by the end of next year, it expects its monthly revenue -- when multiplied by 12 -- to land between those estimates. Analysts expect its revenue to hit $7.8 billion in 2027, which would represent a jaw-dropping CAGR of 305% from 2024. They also expect its adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in 2026 and more than triple to $5.0 billion in 2027.
In fiscal 2025 (which ended in June), Supermicro's revenue rose 47% to $22.0 billion as its adjusted EBITDA grew 6% to $1.6 billion. For fiscal 2026, analysts expect the company's revenue to surge 65% to $36.3 billion, as its adjusted EBITDA rises 10% to $1.8 billion.
The ongoing AI boom will fuel that growth, even as Supermicro faces tougher competition from its larger peers and increases its R&D spending on new liquid-cooled systems. From fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, analysts expect its revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 33% and 26%, respectively, as those tailwinds persist.
Which stock is a better value?
With an enterprise value of $24.2 billion, Nebius still looks reasonably valued at seven times next year's sales. Yet Supermicro, with an enterprise value of $16.6 billion, trades at less than one times next year's sales and six times its adjusted EBITDA.
Nebius' losses are likely compressing its valuation, while Supermicro is still more closely valued as a legacy server maker (like HPE and Dell) rather than a high-growth AI stock.
Both stocks appear attractive at these levels, but Supermicro's first-mover advantage in the AI-optimized server market, robust growth, and low valuations make it a more attractive buy than Nebius. Nebius is a good speculative play, but it needs to prove its business model is sustainable.
