What do you call a stock that has declined more than 30% from its peak but is still up over 230% year to date? A winner. Or you could simply use the stock's name – Nebius Group (NBIS 2.80%).
No one can argue that Nebius hasn't achieved tremendous success. However, there is a legitimate question about the future of this artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscaler. Is Nebius Group stock a buy?
NASDAQ: NBIS
Key Data Points
Buy Nebius: the AI boom is only getting started
Nebius Group reported year-over-year revenue growth of 355% in the third quarter of 2025. The company's revenue skyrocketed 437% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025. This growth almost certainly could have been greater if Nebius had more capacity.
Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh noted in Nebius Group's Q3 earnings call, "We sold out all of our available capacity [in the third quarter]. We continue to see a consistent trend. Every time we bring capacity online, we sell all of it." That's a good problem to have.
Nebius landed two monster deals in recent months. In September, the company announced an enterprise AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft (MSFT 0.20%) valued at between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion. Two months later, Nebius revealed it had scored a $3 billion contract with Meta Platforms (META 2.41%).
Volozh said in the Q3 call that these mega-deals will "arise more and more." Furthermore, he stated that the size of the contract with Meta would probably have been greater if Nebius had more capacity.
All this positive news isn't the most compelling reason to buy Nebius Group stock, though. The main reason to invest in the hyperscaler is that the AI boom is only getting started. Volozh summed it up nicely in his company's quarterly update, saying, "We're just beginning to realize the powerful potential of the AI revolution that is underway, and we are quickly becoming one of the primary cloud and infrastructure providers to support it.
Image source: Getty Images.
Don't buy: several financial details are concerning
Before you rush to click the "buy" button for Nebius Group on your online brokerage, you might want to take a close look at the company's financials. And several details are concerning.
The most glaring one is that Nebius continues to lose a boatload of money. In Q3, the company posted a net loss $119.6 million based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Nebius' bottom line didn't look much better on a non-GAAP basis, with an adjusted net loss in Q3 of $100.4 million.
Capital expenditures are skyrocketing. Nebius raised its 2025 capex guidance from $2 billion to $5 billion. Perhaps the worst news is that the company is spending money it doesn't have.
Nebius is using three methods to raise the enormous capital required to fund its growth. First, the company will take on more debt on top of its current debt load of over $4 billion. Second, it's pursuing asset-backed financing. Third, Nebius is issuing additional shares. Most recently, the company established an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares.
You could say that Nebius is betting the farm that the demand for AI infrastructure will continue to surge. If this premise doesn't play out, the company's financing could be a house of cards that topples to the ground.
Final verdict on Nebius Group
Is Nebius Group stock a buy? I think it depends mainly on investors' risk tolerance and their take on AI demand.
If you are averse to risk, Nebius won't be up your alley. If you think there's an AI bubble poised to burst, stay away from this stock.
On the other hand, if you're an aggressive investor who believes the AI infrastructure build-out will continue for at least several more years, Nebius is an excellent stock to consider adding you your portfolio.
