2025 was yet another lackluster year for Lucid Group (LCID +5.30%). The stock dropped 65% and heavy operating losses have persisted for the electric vehicle maker.
Although the company has some big plans for 2026, don't assume that the dust will settle anytime soon.
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Industry headwinds and the prospect of new vehicle models
In 2026, industry headwinds may continue to weigh on Lucid Group. As Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco noted in a recent downgrade of Lucid Group from hold to sell, the end of the U.S. federal EV tax credit last year will likely keep the industry in "winter mode" in the quarters to come.
NASDAQ: LCID
Key Data Points
Although Percoco might be underestimating the potential impact of Lucid's future plans -- the company plans to debut its line of lower-priced EV models in 2026 -- that may not necessarily lead to a resurgence in its share price.
One key risk remains
Production/delivery issues could soon resolve, but share dilution remains a major risk for the future performance of Lucid shares. The EV maker remains dependent on debt and equity financing from its majority owner, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF).
Lucid hasn't raised any additional equity lately, but outstanding convertible debt totals $2 billion. The company is also planning to utilize a $2 billion credit facility from PIF to fund its expansion efforts.
Unless Lucid's lower-priced models are profitable from the outset, cash burn will persist, necessitating additional funding. Lucid may even need to convert outstanding debt into equity. This could further water down the stock price. With this, forget about the dust settling anytime soon. Until Lucid is able to self-fund its growth, expect shares to continue hitting new lows.
