The Metals Company (TMC 3.05%) is off to a strong start to the new year. After surging 450% in 2025, the stock was up 17% in 2026 as of Jan. 8.
This time last year, the metals stock was trading at around $1 per share. Its trajectory changed drastically in April 2025 when it announced what it described as "the world's first application for commercial recovery permit" under U.S. law, outlining a potential path to mine polymetallic nodules.
NASDAQ: TMC
Key Data Points
That announcement was meaningful because, up until then, the key to its treasure trove had been tied to permission from the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which has yet to finalize a regulatory framework for deep-sea mining.
Image source: The Metals Company.
A path through the U.S. government, which never ratified the treaty that created the ISA and, therefore, maintains its own licensing for seabed mining, could accelerate TMC's commercial ambitions. It could also create political friction, which is why it's uncertain if this strategy will ultimately reach fruition.
The company currently trades at about a fraction of the estimated value of its nodules. Indeed, two assessments of its exploration area indicate a combined project value of $23.6 billion, with capital expenditures of $113 million. At roughly $7 a share (and market cap of about $3 billion), the market seems to be still assigning a relatively modest probability that these nodules ever surface into commercial production.
If TMC's market valuation were to grow into its project value, that would imply about 700% upside from here.
Of course, there's no guarantee that will happen, but I see lots of promise. If TMC can prove the viability of deep-sea mining, which is still a big "if" by the way, it could hypothetically mine nodules in other regions. It's not implausible, in fact, to imagine The Metals Company securing long-term supply contracts with industrial and defense clients whose demands require it to secure still larger reserves of polymetallic nodules.
That's how a $7 stock today could make you filthy rich. Getting there will take time, and volatility should be expected; there's no guarantee and there is risk, but for those who are patient, this moonshot project could yield high rewards.
