Industry followers knew that 2025 would be a pivotal year for electric vehicle (EV) competition. That turned out to be true as legacy automakers significantly scaled up their EV lineups. The question investors wanted answered was what it would mean for potentially promising EV start-ups like Rivian Automotive (RIVN 2.20%) and its stock.
The company didn't adjust its business plan amid the competition, and 2026 now looks to be a more pivotal year for the EV maker. Vehicle sales actually dropped in 2025, but Rivian's plan stayed on track, and its stock surged 48.2%, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Rivian's R3 crossover SUV will follow the 2026 production of the mid-size R2. Image source: Rivian Automotive.
R2 or bust for Rivian?
Rivian delivered just 42,247 EVs in 2025. That represents a significant decline from 51,579 units shipped in 2024. But volume growth wasn't the focus last year. The company experienced planned manufacturing delays to prep its factory for the start of production of Rivian's $45,000 mid-size SUV. That is the model that investors need to pay attention to now.
Management hopes the R2 hits the sweet spot for consumers. With a preliminary estimated battery range of at least 300 miles, a starting price of $45,000, seating capacity for five, and acceleration from zero to 60 in just three seconds, the R2 could have broad appeal.
That potential mass market EV isn't the only thing that got investors jumping into Rivian stock in 2025, though.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
Progress on AI and robotaxis
Rivian held an "Autonomy and AI Day" last month, and that also provided a catalyst for the stock. It turns out the company has been working hard behind the scenes on self-driving technology. The company announced its first in-house Rivian autonomy processor to help power a next-generation autonomy platform.
The heart of Rivian's autonomy platform will be its self-developed artificial intelligence (AI) processors. The company's sophisticated driver-assistance system will be enhanced over time by utilizing data gathered from its fleet of deployed vehicles.
Beginning in late 2026, Rivian's third-generation platform on R2 vehicles will feature cameras, an advanced radar array, and front-facing long-range lidar.
Rivian stock in 2026
Those plans don't necessarily mean Rivian stock will rise in 2026. Some success for the R2 is already built into the stock after the rise in late 2025. Two Wall Street analysts recently downgraded Rivian stock for that specific reason.
Rivian's path to success is a multi-year challenge. 2026 is the first step that will need to show strong demand for the R2. Subsequently, interest in the R3 crossover model will also be important. If Rivian finds sufficient demand and progresses well with its autonomous technology, shares could perform well in the coming year and beyond.
