A couple of weeks into 2026, the cryptocurrency market appears to be roaring back to life. With just a few exceptions, every major cryptocurrency is up to start the year as I write this.
But I'm not convinced that this rally is going to persist throughout the year. The following four cryptocurrencies are at serious risk of a decline of 50% or more in value. You have been warned.
1. & 2. Dogecoin and Shiba Inu
Let's start with the obvious picks first: Dogecoin (DOGE +0.81%) and Shiba Inu (SHIB +1.05%). Both of these meme coins are up more than 15% to start 2026, but I think this is really just a dead-dog bounce. These meme coins are fundamentally worthless, and their massive market caps are really just a result of their very high circulating coin supplies.
Image source: Getty Images.
Just look at the numbers for both meme coins -- they're beyond atrocious. For example, Dogecoin is trading at an 82% discount to its all-time high from May 2021. If Elon Musk can't save Dogecoin, nobody can. I think there's further to fall, as investors give up on these two meme coins entirely.
3. Cardano
Touted as a potential Ethereum (ETH 0.40%) challenger when it launched back in 2017, Cardano (ADA 0.73%) is going nowhere fast these days. Yes, Cardano is up 15% to start the year. But zoom out and take a nice, long look at the five-year chart for Cardano (below). It doesn't inspire confidence. I'm no longer confident that Cardano can break through the $1 price level anytime soon.
CRYPTO: ADA
Key Data Points
Right now, Cardano has a market cap of nearly $14 billion. If it loses 50% of its value, it would approach the market cap of Sui (SUI 0.85%), an up-and-coming Ethereum challenger that launched in 2023. I'd rather put my money into Sui right now than wait for Cardano to move higher.
4. Litecoin
Litecoin (LTC 0.95%) has been a real standout so far this year, but for all the wrong reasons. Of all major cryptocurrencies with a market cap of $1 billion or higher, Litecoin is among only a handful that are actually down for the year. Over the past 90 days, Litecoin is down more than 20%.
At some point, investors are going to throw in the towel on Litecoin. The much-ballyhooed Litecoin halving event of August 2023 was a complete nothingburger, and even the promise of new spot Litecoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) last year did little to boost its prospects.
If Litecoin loses 50% of its value, it would approach the value of Bittensor (TAO +8.04%), a highly speculative artificial intelligence (AI) coin. I'd rather take my chances with a cryptocurrency tied to the future of AI than put an underperforming proof-of-work coin in my portfolio.
Can these cryptocurrencies ever turn things around?
It's almost impossible to think that these longtime market laggards are suddenly going to turn things around in 2026. I predict they will plunge big time. The only possible scenario is if Bitcoin goes absolutely en fuego, helping to light a fire under the entire crypto market.
But even if that happens, I'd rather own Bitcoin than Litecoin. I'd rather own Ethereum than Cardano. And I'd rather own just about any cryptocurrency (no matter how speculative) than Dogecoin or Shiba Inu.
