Artificial intelligence (AI) has been around in some form or fashion for decades, but advances in generative AI over the past several years caused the technology to go viral. These sophisticated algorithms have been shown to increase productivity, generate original content, and streamline workflows. Many of the largest enterprises are already working to capture their share of the resulting windfall.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan have put pen to paper and estimated that the capital expenditures (capex) needed to support AI data center demand will top $1.4 trillion per year by 2030.
If I could buy just one stock to capitalize on that trend in 2026, it would be Nvidia (NVDA +1.60%).
Image source: Getty Images.
The gold standard
When it comes to AI processing, Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are without equal. Despite growing competition, the company controlled 92% of the data center GPU market in 2024, according to IoT Analytics. And while the figures for 2025 are yet to be released, it's unlikely Nvidia ceded much market share.
Why? The company's relentless development cycle releases new and improved processors every year, helping maintain its technological advantage. Furthermore, while rival solutions -- including application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) -- are more energy efficient, GPUs continue to narrow the gap.
For example, Nvidia's current-generation Blackwell chips are 25 times more energy-efficient than the previous Hopper processor. The next-generation Vera Rubin chip, scheduled for release later this year, promised a 90% reduction in processing cost while using 75% fewer GPUs than Blackwell.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
The crystal ball
Nvidia previously reported a backlog of $500 billion for its Blackwell and Rubin chips through fiscal 2027, with $150 billion of those orders already shipped by its fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended Oct. 26). Since then, CFO Colette Kress has indicated that the company's initial projection was too conservative, saying, "The $500 billion has definitely gotten larger." That suggests that, far from decelerating, demand continues to pick up for the chipmaker.
As spending on data centers continues to grow, so too do Nvidia's fortunes. Estimates suggest that 39% of every dollar spent on data centers pays for GPUs, according to Business Insider -- and, as previously mentioned, Nvidia controls more than 90% of the market.
To me, the implication is clear: Despite the specter of growing competition, Nvidia is still the biggest beneficiary of the AI revolution. And at 24 times next year's expected sales, the opportunity is compelling.
That's why Nvidia is the one stock I would buy to capitalize on the AI data center boom in 2026.
