Quantum computing stocks went on a massive run at the end of 2024. While many were bullish on the industry, the investment case quickly collapsed in the first few months of 2025. Stocks like IonQ (IONQ 2.07%) sold off heavily, and were down over 50% by the end of February.
However, if you followed my advice regarding IonQ stock in January, I told you to wait for a few months for the stock to cool off before buying shares. If you waited until March to purchase the stock, which would have resulted in impressive gains. From March 1 to the end of the year, the stock more than doubled.
That's a strong gain in a short time frame, but where is IonQ stock going this year?
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Quantum computing is still a few years out
In 2025, IonQ accomplished several groundbreaking achievements. It was the first company to achieve a 99.99% 2-qubit gate fidelity score -- a measure of how accurate a quantum computer is. No other company has managed to reach a 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelity, which means IonQ is 10 times more accurate than the closest competitor. Because computing accuracy is the primary reason quantum computing is not being deployed at a wide scale right now, this is a big deal.
It also holds the key to how IonQ's stock will perform throughout the year. If it can continue reaching new thresholds, including 99.999% and beyond, then it inches closer to becoming the first company to deliver a quantum computing solution that's accurate enough to deploy in a commercial setting. If IonQ can reach this threshold before any of its competition, it will become one of the top quantum computing investment options.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
On the flip side, if a competitor starts to catch up, IonQ could be in trouble.
So, where will IonQ's stock head in 2026?
The market will steer IonQ's stock
While IonQ can continue to release news about its quantum computing prowess, the reality is that the stock is powerless against the risk tolerance of the market. If events occur that cause the market to derisk, then IonQ's stock could struggle. On the flip side, if we get bullish indicators, then high-risk stocks like IonQ can roar higher.
It's impossible to predict these events in advance, so investors really need to be focused on the long term with a stock like IonQ. IonQ is a leader in the quantum computing industry and a strong bet to win the quantum computing arms race, but we won't know until around 2030 if it is a winner.
As a result, I think investors can buy IonQ's stock now, expecting it to rise and fall dramatically over the next few years. If it becomes the go-to quantum computing provider, its stock will deliver impressive gains over the long term, not just in 2026.
