Bitcoin (BTC 0.38%) is having one of those periods that make even its evangelists a bit tense. It's down by 17% over the last 12 months as I write this, and 22% over the last three months. It seems to sink no matter what the headlines are saying about politics, the economy, or international relations. Sentiment about the coin hasn't been this bad in years.
But none of that will stop me from buying even more of it. Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images.
The supply story isn't affected by headlines
The short-term mechanism of Bitcoin getting beaten down is quite simple. For the last 12 months, there's been a new problem every week or so.
In that period, the market has been perpetually repricing the coin relative to the latest geopolitical conflicts, tariff risks, and other economic phenomena in real time. There has been absolutely no shortage of these chaotic happenings, and there will probably not be any reprieve for a few years. And when these threats escalate, investors tend to trim risk assets like Bitcoin.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
But if you're buying an asset to hold it for years, the headlines in any given week are really not all that important. After all, the whole point of Bitcoin is that it isn't a fiat currency that a government can just print more of. And, as its supply gets even harder to produce every four years thanks to its halvings, today's coins are very likely to be cheaper than those in the future, when miners will need to be compensated for the additional effort needed.
This is to say that no matter how mediocre its performance has been in these turbulent times, its core investment thesis still holds as strong as ever. I expect the coin's price to be significantly higher within a few years.
One risk overhang worth appreciating
Nonetheless, there is one risk that I view as being potentially deadly for Bitcoin, and it's something I am paying very close attention to.
At some point in the future, likely more than five years from now, a quantum computer might be powerful enough to crack Bitcoin's encryption and steal coins. That'd be a massive problem for every holder if it happens.
But, it's already theoretically possible to mitigate this threat. Bitcoin has to choose and deploy its own mitigation path, which will take some time, but its developer community is already in the process of evaluating what the best course of action is.
In the long run, I expect Bitcoin to navigate this obstacle, and that's why I still have the confidence to keep buying it now.
Bitcoin can behave badly this week without there being a long-term problem. I still buy it because the long-term upside comes from inherent properties, specifically its supply policy, while the scariest downside has a plausible path to mitigation that's already starting to move forward.
