Ripple (XRP 1.40%) is trading around $1.57 at this writing, significantly down from its early January high of around $2.40.
Investors are now concerned whether the cryptocurrency will climb on renewed institutional demand or drift lower as speculative momentum fades.
Image source: Getty Images.
The bullish thesis
XRP entered 2026 in a far stronger U.S. regulatory position than in previous years. In August 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended its case against XRP's parent company, Ripple Labs. While Ripple agreed to pay a $125 million fine, the settlement also reinforced the July 2023 verdict that XRP is not treated as a security when sold on public exchanges.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
While this regulatory clarification has not changed XRP's underlying fundamentals, the improved institutional credibility led to the launch of U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in late 2025. By mid-January 2026, XRP ETFs had attracted $1.37 billion in cumulative net inflows.
Ripple is also working toward becoming a full-stack digital asset infrastructure provider through acquisitions such as that of global prime brokerage firm Hidden Road for $1.25 billion, stablecoin payments platform Rail for $200 million, and treasury management platform GTreasury for $1 billion. This move could further strengthen XRP's role in transaction settlement, liquidity management, and other new use cases.
The bearish thesis
Momentum has cooled, as U.S. XRP ETFs witnessed significant fund outflows in January 2026. FXStreet reported the largest single-day spot XRP outflow of $93 million on Jan. 30, bringing cumulative inflows down toward $1.17 billion.
Additionally, according to Foresight News, the daily total fees for XRP transactions globally declined from 5,900 XRP per day in early February 2025 to 650 XRP per day in mid-December 2025 -- levels last seen five years ago. Fees are an important metric for assessing the usage and economic viability of XRP, which has been primarily designed for cross-border payments.
Hence, XRP could see significant volatility in the next few months. However, the long-term upside depends heavily on XRP's real-world usage and not just on news and ETF flows.
