It's been a tough start to 2026 for Joby Aviation (JOBY 2.40%). The stock is down about 20%, which is a continuation of a broader decline that began in the latter half of 2025. The electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) stock still has a fairly hefty market capitalization of around $9.6 billion, but it has been shrinking rapidly of late.
The stock is now down around 50% from its high. But with some promising opportunities in the emerging eVTOL market, is this a good stock to buy right now, or could there be more pain to come for Joby shareholders this year?
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Joby's recent offering highlights the stock's biggest risk
Last week, Joby announced plans to raise up to $1 billion through a combination of common stock and senior notes, which resulted in a continuation of the stock's rapid decline. The offering means more shares will become available in the market, which results in dilution for existing shareholders. While it's not good news for investors, it's a reality that anyone who invests in Joby will need to be comfortable with.
Joby's eVTOL aircraft has still not obtained certification from the FAA, and commercial operations have not commenced. In the meantime, the company has been incurring significant losses, and that's highly likely to continue. Even if Joby's aircraft obtains certification this year, the work of ramping up and scaling its operations begins -- which would no doubt be a costly venture.
Meanwhile, there's still no assurance as to how quickly Joby will generate revenue, and how strong its prospects may be for future profitability. Thus, the need for ongoing capital raises is going to be high, which means that there is likely to be a great deal of volatility with the stock for the foreseeable future.
NYSE: JOBY
Key Data Points
The stock is cheaper, but it's still expensive and highly risky
Joby may look like an attractive stock to buy given how far it's come down in value in such a short time frame, but that doesn't mean it can't still go lower. Investors appear to have been buying the stock with the expectation that Joby will obtain certification for its aircraft in the near future and that it will be a big player in the growing eVTOL market.
However, those are dangerous assumptions to be making, and there are still many question marks about how strong demand will be for eVTOLs, and whether the pricing will work for both companies and consumers. The safest option with Joby is to take a wait-and-see approach. While there is some long-term potential for the stock to rise higher, the risk may be too high for the vast majority of investors, and there are arguably many safer and better growth stocks available.
