In crypto, there's often so much volatility that it can be unclear whether an asset is at risk of crashing, doing nothing, or about to double in value. Sometimes, there are good arguments for all three of those possibilities.
And right now, that's the case with Solana (SOL 1.59%). The coin's price has sagged to the $80s, down by almost 40% during the past month, a far cry from its all-time highs in early 2025. Sentiment about the coin is absolutely awful at the moment -- but that's the same as pretty much everything else in crypto.
So what's the most likely to be coming up next, a price of $20, $120, or $250?
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$20 is grim, but plausible
Solana's main bear case at the moment is that the U.S. legal environment forces its ecosystem to shutter some of its most profitable entities.
An new class action lawsuit is targeting Pump.fun, a meme coin launchpad that runs on Solana, and it alleges securities law violations linked to how tokens are created and sold on the platform. The initial complaint was later expanded, adding both Solana Labs and the Solana Foundation as defendants. Therefore a handful of Solana's structurally important organizations are now at risk.
CRYPTO: SOL
Key Data Points
Of course, there's no verdict yet. But markets tend to price in legal threats quickly, because investors often de-risk before the facts are settled.
So if that de-risking spreads and the macro backdrop stays hostile, a price of $20 per coin is, unfortunately for holders, very much on the table, even if it's not the base case.
Why $250 is not ridiculous
Solana's bull case is the same as always. It offers high throughput and low fees, and people are already using it for real on-chain economic activity.
By total value locked (TVL), which is the dollar value of assets deposited into decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, Solana remains one of the largest smart contract ecosystems, with $7.2 billion in TVL. It also hosts $13.4 billion in stablecoins, which are a necessary prerequisite for most on-chain economic activity.
If the coin's price were to drop to $20, it would mean assigning very little economic added value to the capital already parked on the chain, which makes that price rather improbable in the near term. On the other hand, if the chain continues to be the fastest and cheapest place to do business, it's far more likely that it will experience capital inflows over the long term, which would support it reaching a price of $250 within the next couple of years.
So which price is the most likely to be coming up over the next 12 months?
My base case is that the coin will probably dip a bit lower for the next few months and then recover to surpass $120 again, assuming the legal overhang doesn't get worse. My price target for the end of the year remains $200.
Still, if the idea of holding on to something that's probably going to lose a bit more value scares you, it's best to avoid buying it for now.
