Some companies achieve unimaginable success and then take it to the next level. Others become wildly successful and then begin a slow decline.
Nvidia (NVDA 1.53%) is an example of the former. The GPU maker first dominated the gaming market, but really hit its stride making chips for data centers hosting artificial intelligence (AI) applications. Intel (INTC 5.69%) is an example of the latter category. The chipmaker once dominated the market, only to be knocked off its perch as AI took over.
The jury is still out on which group Micron Technology (MU 3.19%) belongs to. Will Micron be the next Nvidia -- or the next Intel?
Image source: Micron Technology.
A growth story similar to Nvidia's
Morningstar's (MORN +0.81%) Britney Nguyen wrote in December 2025 that "Micron just had its Nvidia moment" by shocking Wall Street analysts with stellar guidance in a similar way as Nvidia did in 2023. Zacks' Derek Lewis wrote earlier this year that Micron and Nvidia were "the kings of AI."
It's understandable why industry observers are comparing Micron with Nvidia. In recent years, Nvidia has had difficulties keeping up with demand for its GPUs. Micron is in the same boat with its high-bandwidth memory (HBM). The company announced in December that it had completely sold out its HBM supply for all of 2026.
Micron's revenue soared roughly 57% year over year in its fiscal 2026 first quarter, which ended Nov. 27, 2025. Its adjusted earnings skyrocketed 169% year over year to $5.5 billion. Those are the kinds of numbers investors are accustomed to seeing from Nvidia.
Just how important is Micron's technology to the AI boom? Here's what Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said last year: "Micron's leadership in high-performance memory is invaluable to enabling the next generation of AI breakthroughs that Nvidia is driving."
Interestingly, Micron has been the bigger winner between these two AI stocks over the last 12 months. Its share price has more than quadrupled during the period, while Nvidia's stock has jumped more than 40%.
NASDAQ: MU
Key Data Points
A potential Intel-like collapse coming?
But could Micron also share some things in common with Intel? Maybe. Intel's market dominance eroded due to increased competition. Micron could face a similar challenge, with Samsung and SK Hynix claiming significant memory chip market shares.
Rumors swirled last week that Micron's HBM4 chips weren't satisfying Nvidia's requirements for its Vera Rubin GPUs that will launch this year. These reports fueled concerns that Nvidia could turn more to Samsung and SK Hynix for its memory rather than Micron.
Both Micron and Baird analyst Jordan Klein dismissed the concerns. I suspect they're right. However, the rumors highlighted the competitive threats that Micron faces.
The biggest worry about Micron, though, is that it's a cyclical stock. Investors fear that the current memory supply demand imbalance could quickly evaporate, causing Micron's share price to plunge. This cyclical concern explains why Micron's shares trade at only 11.8 times forward earnings.
Micron will be the next...
Will Micron be the next Intel? Or will it be the next Nvidia? My answer is neither. Micron will be the next Micron.
The law of supply and demand will always impact Micron. However, it also impacts Nvidia, Intel, and many other companies. If demand exceeds supply, prices for nearly any product will fall. The companies that produce those products will likely experience pressure on their margins.
Micron could face this challenge if the demand for memory chips falls significantly or if memory chip supply increases dramatically. This scenario has played out multiple times in the past and could do so again.
But is this time different? Perhaps, at least in some ways. I suspect that the demand for AI (and, therefore, the demand for Micron's HBM) will continue for much longer than the memory chip cycles over the last few decades. If I'm right, Micron could be a lot more like Nvidia than Intel going forward.
