Nvidia (NVDA 1.24%) is having a moment you'll see in the next generation's business schools. Its chips have become the backbone of the modern AI boom, and Wall Street has rewarded that dominance with a staggering $4.5 trillion market cap as of Feb. 17, 2026.
Now, Nvidia is clearly a great company in the midst of an AI-flavored gold rush. But I'm interested in a long-term perspective today: Which businesses could plausibly have even larger market caps 10 years from now?
A decade is enough time for competitors to catch up, for customers to build more in-house, and for skyrocketing valuations to run into that most stubborn force in finance: gravity.
Let's talk about two businesses I think could be even larger than Nvidia by 2036, especially if Nvidia's hypergrowth slows down.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Alphabet's infrastructure and optionality could outgrow Nvidia's chip empire
Alphabet (GOOG 1.43%) (GOOGL 1.39%) is riding the AI train right alongside Nvidia. Its Google Cloud unit is one of Nvidia's largest customers as the company pumps billions of dollars into AI servers and data centers. As a result, the company's capital expense budget will approximately double in 2027, from $91 billion to roughly $180 billion.
But Alphabet isn't committed to Nvidia's AI hardware in the long run. It already has a custom-designed AI accelerator of its own, in collaboration with Broadcom (AVGO 1.07%) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 4.37%). These Tensor chips are tailor-made for Google Cloud's specific AI processes, but Google may soon sell them to other hyperscalers.
Image source: Getty Images.
And Alphabet isn't alone. Pretty much every AI software provider worth the name is at least considering in-house chip designs at this point. It's a crowded market, and I'm not sure that Nvidia will be able to charge ultra-premium prices for its accelerator chips much longer.
Meanwhile, the AI boom has more than tripled Google Cloud's quarterly revenues over the last three years while swinging from a mild operating loss at the end of 2022 to $5.3 billion of operating profit in Q4 2025. The company is also ready to roll with whatever punches might come next. The Alphabet umbrella organization was created to run lots of businesses that don't have much in common with the flagship Google brand. Self-driving Waymo taxis could be the next big money-maker, for example.
NASDAQ: GOOGL
Key Data Points
How confident is Alphabet's management in the company's longevity? Well, as part of its funding for AI infrastructure expansion, the company recently issued a 100-year bond. That's not a firm promise that Google and/or Alphabet will be around in 2126, but the company will give it a go. How many companies can make that move with a straight face?
10 years is just a stepping stone on the way to that centennial bond's maturity. With a $3.7 trillion market cap, Alphabet is only 20% behind Nvidia's market-leading footprint.
If Nvidia's stock rises at a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% over the next decade while Alphabet's CAGR works out to 14%, the two stocks would end up tied with roughly $13.5 trillion market caps. Small advantages can make a big difference over the years.
NYSE: BRKB
Key Data Points
Boring compounding, blockbuster results
That's exactly what Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA 0.37%) (BRKB 0.28%) is about -- small advantages compounding to massive moats over time.
Berkshire has more catching up to do than Alphabet, but its market cap has averaged $1.1 trillion over the last year. If Nvidia's stock gains 11.5% per year, as contemplated earlier, Berkshire Hathaway would need a 29% CAGR to close the gap in 10 years. That's a lot to ask, so I'm suggesting a weaker Nvidia performance in this comparison. If Berkshire rises at a 15% annual pace, it would land where Nvidia stands today, in the $4.4 trillion range.
That's just above the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.18%) index's average performance in the last decade, or Berkshire's 14.4% yearly gains in the last 10 years of Warren Buffett leadership:
Again, Berkshire might not actually eclipse Nvidia's market cap before 2036. But I do expect this stock to keep climbing at a steady pace for years or even decades, even under new management, while Nvidia's share prices bounce around like a squirrel on espresso. And Berkshire's diversified business model should keep the company relevant and financially healthy for decades to come, and I can't necessarily say that about Nvidia.
So, even if Berkshire falls short of flipping Nvidia's market cap in 10 years, a close call would still make plenty of money for long-term investors. The insurance-based conglomerate should keep thriving after that checkpoint.
