Nvidia (NVDA 1.59%) has been among the best performers in the stock market over the past few years, but it hasn't had a great 2026 so far. Its stock is essentially flat, as is the S&P 500. All of that could change after it reports Q4 earnings on Feb. 25, as those results could ignite the stock to its usual form.
I think 2026 could be a huge year for Nvidia stock for several reasons, but the ultimate question is, what will Nvidia's stock price be by the end of the year? The answer may shock some investors, as I think Nvidia's stock has a huge runway.
Image source: Nvidia.
Nvidia has a few bullish catalysts emerging
Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs) primarily used in artificial intelligence (AI) applications. As we've heard from some of the biggest names in the AI world, capital expenditures are expected to be massive in 2026. Amazon expects to spend $200 billion, Alphabet anywhere from $175 billion and $185 billion, while Meta Platforms intends to spend $115 billion to $135 billion. Those are massive projections, and don't include any numbers from some players like OpenAI or Microsoft. It's clear that 2026 will be a monster year for AI spending, and Nvidia is one of the primary companies that's set to cash in.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Another growth driver in 2026 will be the return of sales to China. In April 2025, President Donald Trump and his administration barred Nvidia and its peers from exporting computing units to China. This was a problem, as Nvidia specifically developed a GPU to meet export restrictions that it was now stuck with.
However, it appears that Chinese sales have been approved once again, though Nvidia will have to pay an export tax. China is a massive AI market, and the impact will be felt in Nvidia's fiscal year (FY) 2027 results, ending January 2027.
All of this adds up to what's expected to be a far better year, and the projections back it up. Wall Street analysts project that Nvidia's growth rate will be 65% in FY 2027, up from 57% in FY 2026. On the earnings per share (EPS) side, they expect Nvidia's to increase from $4.69 to $7.74.
That $7.74 in earnings per share is what we'll base our valuation on. Nvidia's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreased in 2025 to average about 45 times trailing earnings.
NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts
To bake a bit of conservatism into this projection, I'll set an end price of 40 times earnings for Nvidia's stock. If it does that and meets analyst EPS projections, then Nvidia's stock price would be $309.60. That's a massive jump from today's $185 share price, and if Nvidia beats EPS estimates, like it has consistently done over the past few years, and trades for a higher multiple, that price could be even greater.
Nvidia stock is a no-brainer buy right now, and I could see it crossing over $300 per share before 2026 is over.
