Walmart (WMT +1.47%) surpassed $1 trillion in market capitalization earlier this year, becoming the 10th U.S. company in the exclusive club.
Despite being smaller companies than Walmart today (as measured by market cap), I could see ExxonMobil (XOM +1.29%), Visa (V 0.80%), and ASML (ASML 2.61%) outperforming Walmart over the next five years and overtaking it in overall valuation. Here's why.
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Walmart is overvalued
Walmart's results have held up well despite a sectorwide slowdown in consumer staples. But Walmart simply isn't growing quickly enough to justify its sky-high 45.2 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio -- which is nearly twice as expensive as the S&P 500's 23.6 forward P/E and more expensive than every "Magnificent Seven" stock -- except for Tesla.
For these reasons, I expect Walmart to underperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin over the next five years, whereas I expect ExxonMobil, Visa, and ASML to all perform well.
NASDAQ: WMT
Key Data Points
1. ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil has been red-hot in 2026, up big in lockstep with the broader energy sector. Despite the run-up, ExxonMobil stock remains a good value and has a clear path to delivering solid returns for patient shareholders.
Through 2030, ExxonMobil expects double-digit earnings and cash flow growth, even at mediocre oil prices. Relentless buybacks and dividend raises should keep the stock's valuation in check and appeal to passive income investors -- given ExxonMobil has raised its payout for 43 consecutive years.
ExxonMobil features a far higher yield than Walmart, is a better value, and could grow earnings much faster than Walmart due to its high-quality production portfolio and increased energy demand. So, despite it having a market cap of around $620 billion at the time of this writing, I could see ExxonMobil joining the $1 trillion club by 2030.
Data by YCharts.
2. Visa
Investors are flocking to Walmart amid market uncertainty. But there's a far better blue chip dividend stock hiding in plain sight -- Visa.
Visa is a high-margin cash cow that delivers steady earnings growth -- but at ultra-high margins. Walmart relies on sales volume for its earnings growth -- catering to buyers looking for the best value. It's an excellent business model, but Visa's is even better.
Visa makes money from processing payments -- with a fee structure that benefits from both transaction volume and frequency. But Visa doesn't bear the credit risk. That falls on the card issuers that partner with Visa.
Visa makes money during times of economic expansion and contraction. Its high margins allow it to consistently repurchase tons of stock and raise its dividend. And at just 24.4 times forward earnings with a 26.8 price-to-free-cash-flow ratio, Visa is a good option for those looking for a foundational stock to balance out a portfolio.
3. ASML
Despite the sell-off in tech stocks, the semiconductor industry has been resilient -- as evidenced by ASML's monster 31.5% year-to-date gain at the time of this writing. And that's coming off a 54.4% gain in 2025.
ASML is, admittedly, expensive at 40.2 times forward earnings. But that's still less than Walmart. And ASML has far better growth prospects.
ASML makes lithography machines that provide an essential step in manufacturing the world's most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips. Companies like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices rely on ASML's machines to produce their next-generation graphics processing units.
All told, ASML offers investors a simple way to bet on increased AI adoption without having to pick a specific chip or cloud computing winner.
