At a time of growing geopolitical risk and market uncertainty, it's natural for investors to load up on safe investments. Two common options are gold and silver. Investing in precious metals has long been associated with safety and stability, and has been a good way for investors to diversify.
In the past year, both of these metals have been soaring in value and have been much more volatile than usual. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV 1.32%) can help track the price of silver, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD 1.36%) can do the same for gold.
Which of these two investments is the better buy right now?
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What the gold-silver ratio tells us
Both gold and silver tend to be attractive options to buy in times of uncertainty. But when one goes up far faster than the other, it can give investors a better idea of which metal might have more upside. A common ratio used for this purpose is the gold-silver ratio, which simply tells you gold's value in relation to silver.
Gold is always more expensive than silver, but it's a question of how much more expensive it is that is crucial. Historically, the gold-silver ratio has normally been within a range of 50:1 and 70:1. When silver prices were skyrocketing this year, the ratio fell below 50, indicating that silver looked more expensive than normal, in relation to gold. Now, the ratio is approximately 62, suggesting that it is more in line with its historical average.
However, in times of uncertainty, such as during the Great Recession and the pandemic, the ratio usually rises significantly. The last time the gold-silver ratio hit 100 was after reciprocal tariffs were announced in April of last year. Prior to that, the last time was in 2020, during the early stages of the pandemic. This suggests that as economic conditions worsen, investors may load up on one metal much more than the other, and that's gold.
NYSEMKT: GLD
Key Data Points
Why going with gold makes sense right now
In the past six months, the iShares Silver Trust has roughly doubled in value, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF has risen by just over 40%. Silver has been the hotter investment to own of late, but such a sharp increase in value can also make it more susceptible to a correction.
Both of these metals can help diversify your portfolio, but with silver proving to be more volatile of late and investors typically gravitating to gold amid economic uncertainty, I think going with gold and investing in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF is the best option today.
