Sweetgreen (SG 3.83%) hasn't exactly panned out the way that investors had hoped. Shares in the health-forward fast-casual dining concept are currently about 89% below their price on the initial public offering (IPO) date in November 2021. In fact, they are essentially trading at their lowest level ever.
The bulls are hungry for better days ahead. Is Sweetgreen stock going to $10?
Image source: Getty Images.
Looking at the past
Reaching a $10 price target would not be uncharted territory for Sweetgreen. This business started trading on the public market at $52 per share. And after extreme volatility that saw the stock tank, shares soared to $44 in late 2024. Since then, however, there has clearly been extreme pessimism.
Shares traded at a price of $5.36 recently, which showcases severely depressed market sentiment. That view is justified. Sweetgreen registered year-over-year revenue growth of 0.4% in fiscal 2025 (ended Dec. 28, 2025), down from robust double-digit gains in the previous four fiscal years. Same-store sales slumped 7.9% last fiscal year as well, as foot traffic fell.
With this type of disappointing financial performance, the share price increasing 87% from $5.36 to $10 seems like a very low-probability outcome.
NYSE: SG
Key Data Points
Revenue growth is the most critical factor
Investors should know that Sweetgreen isn't yet profitable. In fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025, it posted net losses of $90 million and $134 million, respectively. Wall Street analysts don't see this trend changing anytime soon. The consensus view is that Sweetgreen will report an earnings-per-share loss of $0.61 in fiscal 2028.
As a result of this situation, the stock can't be valued based on profits because there are none. Investors will need to look at the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, which currently stands at just over 0.9. This is significantly below the historical average of 4, showcasing just how much the market has soured on the company.
In my view, the main catalyst that will impact the stock's performance is growth. As mentioned, this was a challenge last year. For what it's worth, sell-side analysts predict that revenue will increase at a compound annual rate of 8.8% between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2028. This isn't anything to write home about. But for this to become a reality, the macro backdrop must be favorable.
If Sweetgreen can return to strong revenue growth, at least better than the market expects, while reducing its net losses, then the stock could easily reach $10. That's because improving fundamentals can have a massive impact on the cheap valuation. But nothing is certain, and the timing of this outcome is anyone's guess.
