In a sign of just how crazy a start to 2026, a viral Substack post got picked up by major financial news outlets, including Bloomberg, and managed to sink several high-profile stocks. The beaten-down software-as-a-service (SaaS) sector took a hit, as did the big payment networks, like Visa and Mastercard, and gig-economy stocks like DoorDash and Uber.
The post, titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis," was basically a hypothetical look into the future of how artificial intelligence (AI) could negatively impact different businesses. Its theory was that AI could create a doom loop in which white-collar workers would lose their jobs and wages would sink, leading to less consumption, which would in turn push companies to rely more on AI, creating a vicious cycle. It postulates that unemployment would spike to above 10% and that the S&P 500 would plunge 38%. SaaS companies would be the first victims, essentially causing their own demise. This would then extend into other areas as AI agents would remove barriers to entry.
It's more nuanced though
Now, while the article has been debated and seen a lot of pushback, I think one of the most interesting things is its origin. The essay was written by Citrini Research, which is run by James van Geelen. He has become one of the top financial writers on Substack despite his most relevant job experience appearing to be an EMT and founding an alternative medicine business. However, despite his nontraditional background, Van Geelen managed to gain a large following because of his focus on thematic investments.
One of the most interesting things to come out about his essay, though, is that it wasn't really his idea; it was the idea of small hedge fund manager Alap Shah, who was short the stocks mentioned in the article. The original report did not disclose Shah's short positions, but he later admitted it on Bloomberg TV.
Now, a bit of an industry secret is that hedge funds will often feed doom-and-gloom and short reports to popular newsletter writers. The writers often don't come up with the ideas themselves, nor do they hold positions in the stocks they write about. However, it gives them content and can lead to increased subscribers.
Meanwhile, funds generally don't want their names attached to these reports for legal reasons. While Van Geelen said he was shocked by the market reaction to his essay, the report essentially functioned as a short-seller report disguised as a macro think piece in an already jittery market.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lessons to learn
I think the biggest lesson that individual investors can learn from this is to not get caught up in doom-and-gloom reports. These reports are usually written with agendas, and often, you don't even know the true source behind them.
While there will be recessions and bear markets, the economy and broader stock market always recover. Technological disruptions happen, but historically, companies adjust, and/or new leaders and industries emerge. That's why owning an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500, like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO), should be the core of most investors' portfolios.
As a market-cap-weighted index, the S&P 500 is essentially a survival-of-the-fittest exercise, which is why the broader market eventually recovers following recessions and financial crises. While you can take advantage of market dips and ride investment trends with individual stocks, you still want an ETF like the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF as the foundation of your portfolio. Throw in a dollar-cost-averaging strategy, and this will help you build wealth over time while taking advantage of any doom-and-gloom market dips.
