Despite its massive run-up in 2025, aviation pioneer Joby Aviation (JOBY 2.05%) has had a terrible start to 2026. Not only are its shares down almost 25% year to date, but they're also actually trading lower than they were five years ago:
NYSE: JOBY
Key Data Points
But sometimes a stock's sharp tumble can be a buying opportunity for clever investors. At a total market cap of $9.6 billion, is Joby a buy now?
What Joby does
Joby designs and manufactures electrical vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Unlike a helicopter, which uses a single large central rotor powered by liquid fuel, eVTOLs use several smaller rotors powered by an electric battery, much like those on small quadricopter toy drones.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
The S-4, Joby's flagship design, features six rotors that can individually rotate to provide vertical lift or forward thrust. It's designed to carry up to four passengers and four carry-on bags, plus a pilot, for up to 150 miles at a top speed of 200 mph. The S-4 is still being evaluated for safety by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), so Joby has not yet deployed its fleet commercially in the U.S. However, it expects to begin air taxi service in Dubai this year and is manufacturing about two aircraft per month at production facilities in California and Ohio.
A (relative) bargain
Joby's share price of less than $10 is trading more than 50% below its 2025 highs, so naturally it looks compellingly priced at first glance. But looks can be deceiving.
At its peak, the company was valued at about $17.5 billion, which put its valuation briefly on par with Southwest Airlines, an actual air transportation company with actual flights, bookings, and passengers. Even now, Joby's market cap is higher than that of American Airlines Group, medical helicopter transportation service TransMedics Group, and ride-hailing platform Lyft, which are valued at $8.2 billion, $5.5 billion, and $5.1 billion, respectively.
NYSE: JOBY
Key Data Points
Given that Joby intends to operate its fleet of eVTOLs as an air taxi service through an app -- much like Uber Technologies, the $158 billion company whose air delivery division Joby purchased in 2020 -- it's a bit concerning to see that its as-yet-unproven technology and business model are being valued far higher than companies that are successfully operating similar businesses. The market for a passenger air taxi service is likely to be considerably smaller than the market for plane flights, emergency medical transportation, or ground taxi rides.
Of course, we won't know if Joby will become a long-term success or a failure for many years. It will need to get FAA certification, ramp up production, and debut its air taxi service in dozens of locations before we'll have any idea whether its business model can succeed. Meanwhile, the stock is likely to be extremely volatile and is a highly risky bet. Given that Joby looks priced for perfection, most investors will want to pass on this ride, at least for now.
