Tesla (TSLA +0.31%) stock is trading at just shy of $400 at the time of writing, representing a high single-digit decline year to date. The fall in the stock is understandable, given the lack of recent newsflow on its robotaxi rollout or even on its efforts to get full self-driving (FSD) software approved for public use in Europe in 2026. That said, is the dip a buying opportunity or the start of a more extended decline?
What moves Tesla stock?
It's natural for investors to focus on the company's electric vehicle sales, and they are obviously a key reason to buy the stock. But the reality is that no one is buying the stock trading at 248 times its free cash flow (FCF) for what it is now, rather than what it could become in the future. That near-term future is robotaxis and later, Optimus robots.
Image source: Tesla.
Robotaxis are not a secondary aspect of Tesla's business or a response to recent declines in automotive revenue and deliveries. Instead, they reflect Elon Musk's vision for the future of autonomous transportation. Musk believes that fewer than 5% of miles driven will be non-autonomous, with robotaxis and FSD as key drivers of transportation-as-a-service (TaaS) in that future.
The latest news, or lack of it, in 2026
As such, all eyes are on Tesla's robotaxi rollout and its FSD development. Unfortunately, the company looks like it's behind schedule on both this year. Starting with FSD, back in November, Tesla said it expected FSD to be approved in the Netherlands in February. That would open the door to EU-wide approval, or failing that, approvals on a country-by-country basis. However, Musk has recently pushed the expected date back to March 20.
As for the robotaxi rollout, back in July, Musk told investors, "I think we'll probably have autonomous ride handling and probably half of the population of the U.S. by the end of the year." Fast forward to October, and Musk told investors, "We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year," and he expected robotaxis would be in operation in Nevada, Florida, and Arizona by the end of 2026.
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
It's mid-March, and while Tesla is now operating robotaxis without safety monitors or cars following in Austin, Texas, there are as yet no other similar activities elsewhere.
Why the slow rollout is a concern
The slow rollout shouldn't be overly concerning in itself; after all, it's more important to ensure there aren't any serious accidents. In that regard, Tesla's safety record is actually pretty good.
That said, the larger concern might be that Tesla is aggressively investing in ramping up production of its dedicated robotaxi, the Cybercab. However, a failure to secure regulatory approval for robotaxis using Model Ys, let alone Cybercabs, threatens to tie up inventory and cash unnecessarily while the company waits for positive developments.
Is Tesla stock a buy?
Given the slow robotaxi rollout, the dip isn't really a unmissable opportunity to buy the stock. The risk of prematurely ramping Cybercab production is rising. That said, timely approval of FSD in the Netherlands and robotaxi expansions in Texas and Arizona could turn the stock's narrative more positive in the near future. It's something to look out for.
