Uncertainty reigns over the stock market right now. The market's "fear gauge" -- the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) -- has soared more than 50% year to date.
I wrote recently that it's starting to look like 1973 all over again. One of the worst stock market crashes ever occurred that year, after several Middle Eastern nations imposed an embargo on oil shipments to the U.S.
To be sure, I don't predict a stock market crash in 2026. But is the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.39%) headed for a correction? That's another story altogether.
Image source: Getty Images.
A triple whammy
The S&P 500 only enters correction territory (usually defined as a decline of at least 10% from a previous peak) when investors are worried. And there's plenty for investors to worry about these days. I'd even say the market faces a potential triple whammy.
You can watch the news at pretty much any time of the day to be updated on the most imminent threat to the stock market. I'm referring, of course, to the ongoing conflict between the U.S. (along with Israel) and Iran. Oil prices have soared, raising fears about resurging inflation. The likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has declined as a result. Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the risk of recession has jumped significantly.
Recession is once again a serious threat. Even before the recent disconcerting events in the Middle East, our machine learning based leading economic indicator model put the probability of a recession starting in the next 12 months at an uncomfortably high 49%. Behind the recent... pic.twitter.com/OUYhJClQyR
-- Mark Zandi (@Markzandi) March 16, 2026
Another legitimate concern is the stock market's valuation. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio, widely considered as one of the best market valuation metrics, is near its second-highest level since 2000 -- right before the dot-com bubble burst.
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio data by YCharts
What's the third component of the potential triple whammy? The market is highly concentrated in only a few stocks. Six of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks make up roughly 31% of the S&P 500. If one of these artificial intelligence (AI) darlings has a misstep that investors view as troubling for the broader group, the index could easily enter a correction.
Reasons to be optimistic
So far, the S&P 500 is holding up quite well amid the uncertainty. The index has yet to fall more than 5% below its previous high.
SNPINDEX: ^GSPC
Key Data Points
Corporate earnings also remain strong. Most S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates with their fourth-quarter results.
There are signs that AI investments could be paying off. Boston Consulting Group conducted a study last year that found AI leaders are achieving 1.7 times higher revenue growth and 3.6 times higher total shareholder return than AI laggards. Several major companies have announced staffing cuts in recent months linked to increased productivity from AI.
J.P. Morgan (JPM +0.32%) Global Research thinks we're in an "AI-driven supercycle." Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of the company's global markets strategy, believes that "this momentum is spreading geographically and across a diverse list of industries, from technology and utilities to banks, healthcare, and logistics."
Is a correction coming?
Despite the reasons for optimism, I suspect that we could see an S&P 500 correction in the not-too-distant future. Stock market corrections are much more common than crashes. The S&P 500 entered into correction territory as recently as 2025.
However, a correction could actually be good news for forward-looking investors. Last year's S&P 500 correction led to the index ultimately delivering a 16% annual gain. Could history repeat itself? It's a definite maybe.
