Intuitive Machines (LUNR +20.16%) stock got hit hard last week after reporting a big loss for Q4 2024. Shares of the space company lost nearly 6% Friday. Today, however, they're winning back all those losses and more -- up 10.2% through 10:30 a.m. ET.
You can thank investment banker Stifel for that.
Image source: Getty Images.
Stifel loves Intuitive Machines
Intuitive Machines was expected to lose only $0.06 per share last quarter, but lost $0.33 instead, as revenue slumped 18%. Free cash flow for all of 2025 was negative $56 million. But no matter, says Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann. This stock is going to $22 within a year.
Why?
Intuitive Machines' revenue stream is subject to project timing and government delays, says Siegmann, which can make revenues lumpy. Investors should anticipate big sales misses at the space company -- but also big sales beats from time to time.
NASDAQ: LUNR
Key Data Points
How to invest in Intuitive Machines stock
Rather than focus on quarterly results, Siegman suggests it's better to focus on the big picture with Intuitive Machines -- and 2026 is shaping up to be a good year, with management forecasting a big jump in revenue to $900 million or even $1 billion. At the midpoint, this implies revenue much better than the $907 million analysts were expecting.
Is the number realistic?
Well, a lot depends on progress with the big $4.8 billion Near Space Network contract that NASA awarded Intuitive Machines back in 2024. It's unclear how much of that revenue Intuitive Machines has collected already -- and how much more remains to be won. What we do know is that the contract runs through 2034 and is on top of any revenue Intuitive might gain from sending landers to the moon.
Opportunities abound, but expect lumpiness to continue.
