Figuring out if a stock will reach a certain target within a certain period presents challenges. After all, no one can predict the future with certainty.
But analyzing a company's fundamentals along with examining the valuation can greatly help in the process. At the very least, it will help inform how a company needs to perform to reach your target price.
FMC's (FMC 1.79%) stock price closed at $13.09 on March 20. Can it reach $15 in a year?
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Weak near-term fundamentals
FMC develops and sells crop protection products, including chemicals like insecticides and herbicides, and biological products such as those that provide crop nutrition.
The company certainly has had challenges. Last year's revenue, adjusted to exclude businesses sold or in the process of being sold, fell 5% to $3.5 billion. It's difficult to decipher FMC's bottom line since it incurs various charges, including restructuring. But the company reported a loss from continuing operations under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) of $2.2 billion compared to a $403.4 million profit a year ago.
Management's priorities to turn around operations include improving the core portfolio of products. It also plans to improve the balance sheet. Still, there doesn't appear to be a short-term fix, with management expecting about a 5% revenue decline this year.
Can the stock get there?
The stock jumped last month following FMC's announcement that it would explore strategic options, including an entity acquiring the whole company. Still, the shares have dropped 68.5% over the last year through March 20.
NYSE: FMC
Key Data Points
To achieve the $15 price target, an acquirer would need to pay a 15% premium to the current stock price. But it's difficult to assess how much the company might fetch in a sale, or even if one will happen.
Investors would be better served by focusing on the business's fundamentals. When looking at the valuation, you can't use the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio due to the lack of a profit. However, investors can turn to the price-to-sales (P/S) multiple.
FMC's shares trade at a P/S ratio of 0.5, down from 1.2 a year ago. Before jumping to the conclusion that it's a value stock, remember FMC's challenges. You'd have to believe the company has a strong pipeline to attract a suitor or drive long-term revenue growth.
Assuming the company doesn't get acquired, its sales per share would need to increase 15%. That doesn't seem likely given management's guidance of faltering sales. Alternatively, the P/S multiple would need to double.
Barring a sale of the company, the stock price achieving $15 seems like a tall order based on management's weak top-line guidance.
