Meta Platforms (META +2.27%) has set an extremely ambitious goal for the next five years, according to a recent report from The Wall Street Journal. The social media company introduced a new stock option program for top executives, with potential payouts for some worth hundreds of millions, if Meta reaches a $9 trillion market cap by 2031.
With Meta stock down 10% on the year as of March 25, shareholders are eager for any sign that it will turn its performance around. But considering its current market cap is $1.5 trillion, how likely is it to meet its target?
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Meta stock needs to grow 500% over the next five years, which comes out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43%, to reach $9 trillion. Meta hasn't delivered those kinds of returns over the last decade, much less the last five years.
Also standing in its way is Meta's status as a megacap company with a dominant market position. Those are normally positives, but they also make explosive growth harder to come by. For perspective, we're talking about a company that had over 3.5 billion people active daily on its platforms in December 2025. When nearly half the planet already uses your products, making your company 6 times larger is a tall order.
Meta is investing in AI, with an estimated $115 billion to $135 billion in capital expenditures in 2026. CEO Mark Zuckerberg believes AI will allow Meta to "build completely new products," and leveraging AI advancements is almost certainly a major part of the plan to dramatically grow the company.
NASDAQ: META
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Still, the odds of Meta achieving a $9 trillion market cap in five years are slim. I'm bullish on the company, especially trading at just 20 times forward earnings at the time of writing, but I doubt my shares will be worth 6 times as much in 2031.
