Constellation Energy (CEG +7.86%) stock tumbled 6.5% through 9:40 a.m. ET this morning after publishing its 2026 Business and Earnings Outlook.
The Outlook covers Constellation's expectations through 2030. It's what the utility said about 2026, that seems to have investors upset today -- but the long term implications are even more worrisome.
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Constellation's Plan 2030
Constellation has big things in store for investors over the next five years. Starting with 2026, management says investors can expect anywhere from $11 to $12 per share in operating earnings, or $11.50 at the midpoint. That's a big 55% jump from 2025 GAAP earnings of $7.40 per share. (Wall Street analysts, however, are looking for $11.60 -- so Constellation is already starting off on the wrong foot.)
Base earnings will grow 20% annually as the company expands sales of both natural gas and nuclear power. Unfortunately, it appears growth will be backloaded, with earnings growing at only 10% in the first three years. Run-rate that growth out, and 20% growth from $7.40 in 2025 implies that five years from now, in 2030, Constellation might be earning as much as $18.41 per share.
But here's the problem: Analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence want to see Constellation earn no less than $33.43 per share in 2030.
NASDAQ: CEG
Key Data Points
What it means for Constellation stock
Long story short, Constellation's ballyhooed 2026 Business and Earnings Outlook is actually nothing more than a 62-page promise to miss earnings this year, miss earnings next year, and keep on missing earnings for the next five years.
That's probably not what investors were hoping to see from a stock trading at 37 times earnings today. It's precisely the reason Constellation stock is going down.
