Editor's note: This article has been corrected and updated. The Okla facility expect to reach criticality by July 4 is its Groves Isotope Test Reactor in Texas.
In the coming decades, a new $10 trillion opportunity will be available, according to a new report from Bank of America. The bank is deeming this coming opportunity a "nuclear renaissance."
The thesis here is simple. The artificial intelligence (AI) industry is expanding rapidly. But to make AI possible, the industry needs a lot of power, mainly to service the electricity needs of data centers. The current grid and electricity generation capacity aren't capable of servicing these rising needs. And so we'll need other sources of power -- clean, reliable sources that can be built quickly and expanded as needed.
Bank of America thinks nuclear energy is a perfect solution to this dilemma. And Oklo's (OKLO +3.99%) novel approach, which uses small modular reactors (SMRs), should play an important role. There's just one problem: Oklo's technology has very limited real-world validation. But that could all change on July 4.
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Oklo's demonstration in July could create a domino effect
Last year, Oklo was selected to participate in the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Reactor Pilot Program. Atomic Alchemy -- which Oklo later acquired -- was selected for a project as well.
The Reactor Pilot Program was initiated in the middle of 2025 based on an executive order that directed the DOE "to take a leading role in unleashing the American nuclear renaissance." The ultimate goal of this program is to fast-track commercial licensing for new reactor designs. Progress toward that goal would begin with "at least three advanced nuclear reactor concepts located outside of the national laboratories" reaching criticality by July 4, 2026.
Reaching criticality is just technical jargon for when a reactor is proven capable of achieving a self-sustaining, but not growing, reaction -- a critical proof point for the design's ability to produce sustainable power over the long term.
Image source: Getty Images.
There's growing confidence among experts that the company will be able to reach criticality in one of its reactors before the deadline set by the Reactor Pilot Program. "I fully expect that it will reach criticality by July 4," Jeff Brown, CEO of Brownstone Research, said in an article regarding Oklo's Texas-based Groves Isotopes Test Reactor, a radioisotope facility that Oklo says will "help us gather critical data, refine our processes, and apply those lessons to subsequent licensing submissions and future deployments.”
On a video posted on its YouTube channel, Oklo states: "Isotopes power some of the most critical technologies in modern medicine, from early cancer detection to targeted therapies that deliver treatment directly to tumors. Nearly all of America's supply comes from overseas. Oklo is building here. This is the making of Groves, set to reach criticality by July 4th, 2026."
Achieving criticality would be an expected, but nonetheless powerful, proof point for Oklo's technological approach to nuclear. It could speed up the pathway for other DOE approvals, as well as the licensing process for the Nuclear Regulatory Council -- a key bottleneck for scaling Oklo's reactors.
Oklo wants to get its first project online by the end of 2027. Reaching criticality at the Texas plant by July 4 would give the market much higher confidence that it can reach this aggressive target.
