When Bitcoin (BTC +0.87%) hit a price of $126,000 last year, it looked as if the world's most popular cryptocurrency was on a glide path to $1 million. But a lot has happened between now and then, and Bitcoin has turned out to be a lot more volatile than many people thought.
With Bitcoin currently trading around the $77,000 mark, here are three potential scenarios for where it could be five years from now.
Best-case scenario
In a best-case scenario, Bitcoin hits a price of $1 million. That might sound outlandish, but there are plenty of high-profile investors who think it could still happen by the year 2030.
For example, there's Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, who thinks Bitcoin could hit a price of $1.2 million by 2030. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase Global (COIN +7.67%), also thinks a price of $1 million is possible within the next five years.
Image source: Getty Images.
The good news is that there are plenty of new catalysts to send Bitcoin soaring. For example, if the U.S. Treasury decides to start buying Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, that could set off an extended bull market rally.
There's also the next Bitcoin halving, tentatively scheduled for April 2028. Historically, every Bitcoin halving has been the kick-off event for a bull market run that takes Bitcoin to a new all-time high.
Base-case scenario
In a base-case scenario, Bitcoin begins to trade like a typical tech stock. And indeed, there's growing statistical evidence that Bitcoin is becoming much more highly correlated with the tech sector.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Due to growing institutional investor interest, Bitcoin could become more highly correlated with the broader market, and talk about crypto as a stand-alone asset class could begin to subside. From this perspective, Bitcoin becomes just another risky tech stock.
Instead of doubling in value each year, Bitcoin might post returns of 20% per year, which is not at all meager. If that's the case, then Bitcoin would hit a price of $200,000 five years from now.
Worst-case scenario
In a worst-case scenario, the tech industry's quantum computing nightmare becomes a reality, and people begin to doubt the technological basis for Bitcoin. At the same time, people may lose faith in Bitcoin as "digital gold" if it continues to lose value this year.
As a result, longtime Bitcoin bears such as Peter Schiff might finally be vindicated as the price of Bitcoin crashes. In this scenario, Bitcoin might fall below the $30,000 mark.
What is the most likely scenario?
As with most things in life, the base-case scenario is the most likely. After an epic 10-year run when it outperformed just about every asset on the planet, Bitcoin may be unable to offer a repeat performance over the next decade. It's hard to believe that it could continue to double in value, year after year.
I'm still buying Bitcoin, but I'm keeping my expectations in check. The days of becoming a crypto millionaire by investing just a few thousand dollars in Bitcoin are probably over. But it's still possible to outpace the broader market by investing in Bitcoin for the long haul.
