Starbucks' (SBUX 0.52%) recovery looks like it's underway. Total revenue increased 6% year over year in the fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended Dec. 28), and comparable-store sales (comps) were up 4%.
It's scheduled to release second-quarter earnings on April 28, and the stock could make a big move afterwards. There will be many updates about its progress, and the most important metric to watch is U.S. transactions growth.
Image source: Starbucks.
Comps growth is always an important metric because it provides a more in-depth look at where growth is coming from than total sales, which could include new stores or acquisitions. But even comps growth could be limited as an indicator because it could come from price increases, not necessarily more-engaged buyers.
That's where transactions come in. Higher transactions are the signal that growth is coming from either more buyers, or buyers who are coming in more frequently. Either of those is a positive sign for Starbucks' recovery.
NASDAQ: SBUX
Key Data Points
The company has been struggling for several years, and CEO Brian Niccol has been on the job for about a year and a half, trying to turn things around. One of the most obvious demonstrations of success in the first quarter was a year-over-year increase in transactions at U.S. company-operated stores for the first time in eight quarters.
The transaction volume increased 3% and was responsible for most of the comps growth. The average ticket, which is the amount of each order, was responsible for 1% growth. If the comeback strategy is indeed working, that trend should continue into the second quarter.
