Archer Aviation (ACHR 3.90%) is aiming to build a business around urban mobility. At the heart of this vision is its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft -- "Midnight" -- which can carry four passengers over congested cities in significantly less time than traditional ground-based travel.
It's an intriguing idea, but will it catch on? Will flying taxis transform pre-revenue, cash-burning, stock-diluting Archer into a multi-billion-dollar business? Will that, in turn, make today's $6 Archer stock a path to millions for long-term investors?
The ticket to a million-dollar return is expensive
As of today, April 22, Archer Aviation trades at about $6 a share and carries a roughly $4.5 billion market capitalization. Archer hasn't traded above $8 a share since late January, even though it's made some progress on its certification timeline.
Assuming no stock splits or dilutions (unlikely, but for the sake of example), a $10,000 investment in Archer at today's price would need a 100x gain to reach $1 million. That, in turn, would require Archer's market capitalization to grow to about $450 billion -- about 75 times its current $6 billion backlog.
NYSE: ACHR
Key Data Points
A larger upfront investment lowers the required return multiple. For example, turning a $25,000 investment into $1 million would require a 40x gain (implying a $180 billion market cap), whereas a $50,000 investment would need a 20x gain ($90 billion market cap).
These are just back-of-the-envelope calculations. In reality, the company's valuation would likely need to be higher to turn your initial investment into $1 million, especially if Archer continues issuing new shares to raise capital. It's not unusual for start-ups like Archer to issue new shares, but it does complicate the math: As the share count rises, each share represents a smaller slice of the company, therefore requiring more overall growth to reach $1 million.
Will Archer grow into a multi-billion-dollar company?
For Archer to make you a millionaire, it has to prove multiple things at once.
Obviously, it has to clear the regulatory gate and start putting paying passengers in the air. That's a first step, but it probably won't push Archer's market cap into the territory needed to turn a sizable investment into a million.
For Archer's story to become a success, it needs demand for eVTOLs. No theatrics, no customers trying the air taxi once for novelty, then never again -- return customers who can't remember what life was like without flying taxis.
Since Archer plans to sell aircraft directly, it must also demonstrate that its manufacturing facility in Georgia can produce the Midnight at scale and at a viable cost. That remains uncertain, as it’s still early to determine how much Archer can realistically earn once operating expenses are included.
Image source: Archer Aviation.
These things would all make Archer a compelling business, yet they still wouldn't likely push Archer stock into millionaire-making territory. For that to happen, Archer would need to beat Joby Aviation (JOBY 2.60%) to become the face of air taxi transportation. Not only that, it would also need to become the go-to manufacturer of eVTOLs for military and defense purposes, which would diversify its business.
That, however, would be an extreme scenario, and Archer today is still just a speculative concept. It's not a guaranteed ticket to millions, but success in its underlying business could yield a sizable gain over the long run.
