Predicting that any stock will rise tenfold in any time frame is a bold call. Some high-growth investors are looking for stocks that can 10x in 10 years, which would be an incredible return. I think that IonQ (IONQ +2.75%) may be one such stock.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Quantum computing is coming quicker than most realize
Useful quantum computing is already at our doorstep. Several companies are already using early-stage quantum computers for certain tasks. What's keeping quantum computing from going mainstream is accuracy. Quantum computers today are vastly less accurate than traditional computers, and separating noise from actual results isn't easy. However, IonQ has the world's leading quantum technology and boasts a world-record-holding 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity. This means IonQ's technology makes about one error out of every 10,000 operations when a calculation is required to pass through two logic gates. Most quantum computing companies are struggling to achieve 99.9% accuracy at scale, so IonQ is well in front. While even 99.99% fidelity is far from the levels needed to make this technology ready for the mainstream, if IonQ can maintain its lead as the race progresses, this could give it a shot at capturing a large piece of the market.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
Should IonQ gain a meaningful share of this important and emerging industry, I have no doubt that its stock price will skyrocket. If it grew tenfold, it would have a $170 billion market cap. For a company operating on the bleeding edge of technology and rapidly growing, I'd expect it to trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 50. To make those figures match up would require IonQ to generate $3.4 billion in earnings.
Profit margins on hardware businesses normally aren't as good as for software businesses, but companies like Nvidia (NVDA 1.00%) have proven that margins of 50% or greater on hardware are possible. Let's be a bit more conservative and speculate that IonQ might manage a margin of 40%. At that level, to earn $3.4 billion requires $8.5 billion in revenue.
Could it do that in 10 years? Well, McKinsey & Company estimates that the global quantum computing market could be between $28 billion and $72 billion annually by 2035. So there is plenty of room for IonQ to capture a slice of the market and deliver 10x returns. If it ends up capturing more, it could deliver even better returns. While the math that supports this premise is simple, the execution will be anything but. There are still a ton of roadblocks ahead of IonQ, and it won't be easy for it to rise to the top. However, with its technology edge, I think it has as good a shot as any of its rivals to lead the market.
