It's probably to be expected from a stock named Rocket Lab (RKLB +11.09%), but this company just keeps going up and up.
I'm not just talking about the stock price, although Rocket Lab stock is up 51% already this year, including Friday's astounding 34% run after earnings. I'm talking about how well this rocket stock's business is on the ascent.
Image source: Rocket Lab.
Rocket Lab's biggest contract ever
Following up on yesterday's earnings beat, Rocket Lab announced the signing of "the largest launch contract in Rocket Lab history." Over the next three years, Rocket Lab will launch five Neutron rockets and three Electron rockets for one single undisclosed customer.
Rocket Lab did not disclose its price, saying only that "pricing [...] aligns with Rocket Lab's average selling price for Neutron and Electron." Still, Rocket Lab noted that its total backlog, including the confidential contract, has risen past $2.2 billion. The company's most recent disclosed backlog before announcing the Neutron contract, though, included in its Q4 2025 report in February, put backlog at only $1.85 billion.
That's a difference of $350 million.
NASDAQ: RKLB
Key Data Points
Space math
But exactly how much of this difference can we attribute to Rocket Lab's confidential customer and its order for five Neutron launches and three Electron launches?
Start by adding back to the $350 million the value of the seven Electron missions we know Rocket Lab launched in Q1 (about $60 million), which have already rolled out of backlog. Next, subtract the value of the company's $190 million contract to launch 20 HASTE missions for Space Force, which makes up part of the backlog increase.
What you get is my rough estimate that the new confidential launch contract might be worth $220 million to Rocket Lab.
This also allows us to make an educated guess at how much Rocket Lab is charging for these first few Neutron flights. Assuming dedicated Electron launches are still selling for about $8.4 million each, and subtracting from my $220 million estimate the cost of the three Electron launches the confidential customer is buying (and then dividing among five Neutron launches), we can now estimate the price of a single dedicated Neutron launch:
$44 million.
That's a lot less than the $74 million that SpaceX charges for a Falcon 9 launch after its own latest price hike, allowing us to conclude that Rocket Lab definitely intends to underprice SpaceX and Falcon 9.
We've signed the largest launch contract in Rocket Lab history: 5x Neutron launches and 3x Electron launches across LC-1 and LC-3 from now through to 2029.
-- Rocket Lab (@RocketLab) May 7, 2026
With Neutron's manifest filling up fast through to the end of the decade, the demand signal is clear: the market needs... pic.twitter.com/JWFDlfHKWe
What's next for Rocket Lab stock?
That $44 million is a bit less than the $50 million Rocket Lab reportedly planned to charge for a Neutron launch -- which makes sense. Companies often offer discounted prices to win customer support for a brand-new product, and to reward initial customers for their trust in placing early orders. What's more, low prices should help Rocket Lab to win market share away from SpaceX.
Just because Rocket Lab is "starting small," though, don't expect its prices to stay this low forever.
There's "continuous demand for medium-lift launch alternatives" to SpaceX's Falcon 9, says Rocket Lab, and "the space industry needs more launch capacity." Rocket Lab's own capacity is in fact already "filling up through to the end of the decade." This is setting up a classic supply crunch, in which suppliers like Rocket Lab enjoy pricing power and can -- indeed must -- raise prices to help balance supply and demand.
We've already seen this happen with SpaceX raising Falcon 9 prices and Rocket Lab raising the price of its small Electron rocket. Once Rocket Lab gets Neutron flying, I expect we'll see the same dynamic at play there.
Neutron prices will rise, and Rocket Lab profits will fly.
