Archer Aviation (ACHR 3.90%) has fallen roughly 50% from its 52-week high reached in October. The optimism that drove the stock over $14 per share has been replaced by the reality of its cash consumption.
The company is developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft but has yet to generate meaningful revenue. With a quarterly cash burn of around $180 million, Archer can't afford prolonged delays in FAA certification. It has around $1.8 billion in liquidity, giving it a modest runway before shareholders face further dilution.
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The race for FAA certification
Archer's goal is to operate a fleet of electric air taxis, offering short flights over urban areas. Its Midnight aircraft is designed to carry a pilot and four passengers on routes of 20 to 50 miles at speeds up to 150 miles per hour.
The company's future depends on its ability to move through the FAA's certification process. Archer announced it had completed Stage 3, meaning the FAA has approved its testing plan. Archer is now in Stage 4, where the actual flight and structural tests are conducted.
A key milestone in this stage is the piloted transition flight, which management now targets for the second half of the year. While the company has made progress, it has not yet flown an FAA-conforming aircraft. For context, its primary competitor, Joby Aviation (JOBY 2.27%), flew its first conforming aircraft in March.
This certification timeline is critical because of the company's burn rate. Management guided for an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss of $170 million to $200 million for the second quarter, driven in part by strategic spending on a defense partnership with Anduril.
NYSE: ACHR
Key Data Points
Early revenue and long-term risks
The company reported its first-ever revenue of $1.6 million in the first quarter, solely from leasing space at its recently acquired Hawthorne Airport in Los Angeles. This acquisition provides a crucial operational hub and a small but growing stream of recurring income.
Archer also has an opportunity to earn revenue from its Launch Edition program in the United Arab Emirates. While the program is expected to begin generating revenue in 2026, management has characterized it as "limited commercial operations" and "early revenue" rather than a major near-term windfall.
Archer is certainly a high-risk investment in a novel technology and an unproven market. The company's nearly $2 billion in liquidity provides a runway of roughly two-and-a-half years at the current burn rate. This timeline leaves little room for significant delays and makes further equity raises a risk worth weighing.
