Warren Buffett has said something close to this for decades: Invest in businesses you understand, that have durable competitive advantages, and that sit in the middle of something the world won't stop needing. He's talked about railroads, insurance companies, consumer staples. He probably hasn't talked much about fleet management software. That's fine. The principle still applies.
Samsara (IOT +2.83%) might not be the first company Buffett would write about, but the economic logic behind it -- a business deeply embedded in the physical operations of thousands of companies, with high switching costs and a data moat that grows every single day -- is exactly the kind of thing he'd recognize if he looked closely.
NYSE: IOT
Key Data Points
The business that runs in the background
Every time a garbage truck picks up trash in a city, a school bus drops off a student, a delivery van navigates through weather, or a construction crew checks into a job site, there's a reasonable chance that Samsara's platform is watching, logging, and learning. The company operates what it calls a Connected Operations Platform, pulling data from internet of things (IoT) sensors and cameras mounted on vehicles and equipment, then feeding that data into AI models that help operators make faster, better decisions.
Most people ignore this kind of technology, but Samsara's platform now draws on data from more than 80 billion miles driven annually and over 120 billion API calls. These numbers are the foundation of an AI model that gets smarter every time someone drives a truck. The companies using Samsara don't just pay for software. They're plugging their entire physical operation into a nervous system that becomes harder to remove every year.
That's a switching cost Buffett would understand.
Image source: Getty Images.
What Samsara is building beyond fleet tracking
What's interesting about Samsara in 2026 is that it stopped being just a fleet company a while ago. Recently, the company launched a full Public Sector AI Suite -- three purpose-built solutions for government agencies that include Ground Intelligence (AI that detects road hazards from data collected across 99% of major U.S. roads), Waste Intelligence (AI-powered service verification for municipal waste operations), and Ridership Management (digital tracking for school transportation).
This matters for a reason beyond the press release: Government contracts are long, sticky, and extremely hard to displace. A city that integrates Samsara into its school bus system and road infrastructure monitoring doesn't switch platforms in two years. The sales cycle is slow, but so is the churn.
In March, Samsara also launched AI Coaching features that turn every fleet manager into something like a professional safety analyst, using AI to simulate real-world scenarios, automatically triage risk events, and deliver personalized audio briefings to drivers before their shifts begin. This is the kind of thing that reduces accidents and insurance costs, and gives safety directors a reason to champion the platform internally.
The $1,000 case
For investors putting $1,000 to work, the question isn't whether Samsara is exciting; it's whether the business is durable and safe for an investment. I think it is. Annual recurring revenue rose 30% to $1.9 billion in the company's fiscal 2026, ended Jan. 31. Analysts see a mean price target of around $42 per share , with the stock recently trading in the low $30s, representing meaningful upside if the company continues executing.
A couple of things to note: Samsara is not cheap by traditional metrics, and it isn't yet consistently profitable. The stock has also pulled back significantly from its highs, down roughly 50% over the past 12 months, spooking some investors. And while the public sector push is compelling, government sales cycles are slower and less predictable than enterprise deals.
A $1,000 investment here is a bet that the physical world -- the trucks, the buses, the roads, the job sites -- will become increasingly wired with intelligence over the next decade, and that Samsara has built the platform at its center.
That's a bet I wager Buffett would at least respect even if he'd never make it himself.
