Forget about the Permian Basin, Guyana, or other oil-rich regions that integrated oil and gas companies have been actively exploring in recent years. Oil and gas giant ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is setting its sights north, far north, to Alaska's North Slope.
While Alaska has been a major oil exploration spot for decades, ConocoPhillips is not pouncing on some run-of-the-mill opportunity. Instead, the company has made this multibillion-dollar project a key component of its cash flow growth strategy.
If successful, this project, known as Willow, could produce billions in incremental cash flow by 2029. Coupled with other efforts, this dramatic surge in profitability could bode well for ConocoPhillips, one of the most widely followed oil stocks.
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ConocoPhillips and its Willow gambit
Expected to cost up to $9 billion, ConocoPhillips' Willow project is the largest Alaskan North Slope energy exploration project in more than 20 years. While the price tag may seem hefty, the potential upside in crude oil production could be substantial. Company forecasts call for peak production of 180,000 barrels per day, with the site ultimately producing over 600 million barrels of recoverable oil.
NYSE: COP
Key Data Points
Although not expected to come online until early 2029, management expects it to have an immediate impact on profitability. Since last year, the company has touted it as the sort of grand finale of its efforts to increase annual cash flow between 2025 and the decade's end.
As discussed in communications to investors, ConocoPhillips remains "well positioned to deliver an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion each year from 2026 through 2028."
In other words, the company expects to wring out $3 billion in additional cash flow through standard cost-reduction measures, with the remaining $4 billion covered by cash flows from the Willow project.
Does this put shares in the buy zone?
Considering ConocoPhillips reported operating cash flow of $19.8 billion in 2025, an incremental $7 billion within three years is quite an improvement. Not only would this increased cash flow likely lead to further dividend growth, but it would also likely continue or even expand the company's share repurchase program.
Assuming much of this cash flow also hits the bottom line, it'll likely serve as an upward driver for ConocoPhillips shares. Trading for around 11 times forward earnings, a slight discount to peers such as ExxonMobil, one can argue that investors have yet to even partially factor in the potential upside from the Willow project.
There may be a good reason for this. ConocoPhillips' forecasts hinge heavily on crude oil staying above $70 per barrel. Oil markets can be unpredictable. It's unclear how factors like geopolitics and global economic health impact energy prices, positively or negatively, four years out.
Nevertheless, while only time will tell whether ConocoPhillips' Willow gambit pays off, consider it a strong potential catalyst, atop a myriad of strengths. Besides a reasonable valuation, ConocoPhillips is also one of the top dividend oil stocks, with a 2.9% forward dividend, and over the past five years has experienced double-digit annual dividend growth.
Considering all factors, shares appear to be in the buy zone at current prices.
