Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%), commonly known as SpaceX, took the world by storm when it started trading on the public markets. Following the first few days of trading, it's about a $2.5 trillion company, essentially tying it with Amazon as the world's fifth-largest company. That's a pretty impressive mark for a newly public business, but does it deserve to be there?
Let's look at SpaceX to determine if now is the right time to buy, or if investors are better off being patient and waiting for this stock to come back down to earth.
Image source: Getty Images.
SpaceX's financials don't match its valuation -- and that's OK
The biggest gripe many investors have with the stock is that its finances and its valuation don't jibe. In 2025, revenue totaled $18.7 billion, rising 33% year over year. Those are solid figures, but do they make sense for a company that trades at $2.5 trillion?
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
Furthermore, when you break down SpaceX's revenue streams, it seems like it's more of a telecom than a space or artificial intelligence (AI) investment. In 2025, its connectivity division, which primarily includes its Starlink internet service, saw revenue explode 50% higher and made up more than half of its total revenue.
In comparison, its space unit saw 8% growth, and its AI business -- xAI, the makers of the Grok generative AI model -- saw 22% growth. From the standpoint of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), its connectivity division makes up the bulk of SpaceX's profits, with the space segment adding a tiny bit of profitability and AI losing money.
Once again, these are all OK figures, but not what you would expect from a company that's valued at $2.5 trillion.
The fourth, fifth, seventh, and eighth largest companies are Microsoft, Amazon, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Broadcom, respectively. Compared to these four, SpaceX's $18.7 billion in revenue just doesn't hold a candle. The stock is priced at a massive 130 times trailing revenue. It makes market darling Palantir look affordable at 59x sales.
MSFT Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing twelve months.
This means that much of SpaceX's valuation is tied to what it could do in the future, which is exciting to think about. This is extremely similar to CEO Elon Musk's other public company, Tesla, whose valuation doesn't make sense, either, but a large majority of its value is tied to new technologies the company is working on.
It's OK to be bullish in the future and have some of your money invested in moonshot stocks like those two. Still, investors need to be careful not to devote too much money to them because they do look overvalued by traditional measures.
I'm not buying SpaceX now; I think there is too much hype baked into the shares and better values out there. But if you're bullish on its long-term goals, taking a position isn't a bad thing. Just remember to keep the position smaller, as volatile days could be ahead.
