Standard Chartered (STAN +0.20%) recently identified a cryptocurrency it expects to soar over the rest of the decade, and it's not one of the big names. It's Uniswap (UNI 1.02%), the native token of the Uniswap decentralized exchange.
Uniswap trades at nearly $3 at the time of this writing (June 25), but Standard Chartered sees it as a cryptocurrency that could explode, setting a price target of $100 by the end of 2030. While a rise like that is certainly possible for a cryptocurrency, it's worth analyzing how realistic this forecast is if you're considering an investment.
Image source: Getty Images.
The tokenization growth catalyst
Standard Chartered's price target for Uniswap is based on one potential growth catalyst tied to the future of crypto: the migration of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. RWAs are a fairly new on-chain asset class that use crypto tokens to represent traditional financial instruments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate.
The tokenized RWA market surpassed $51 billion earlier this month, up 40% year over year. Standard Chartered expects growth to accelerate and for tokenized assets to reach $4 trillion by the end of 2028, including $2 trillion in RWAs and $2 trillion in stablecoins.
As the tokenized asset market grows, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick also expects the market share locked into DeFi protocols to grow with it. Kendrick estimates 3.5% of tokenized assets are currently in DeFi protocols, but that will rise to 30% by 2030.
Uniswap stands to benefit the most because it's the dominant decentralized exchange. Over the last 30 days, Uniswap recorded about $43 billion in trading volume, according to DeFiLlama. PancakeSwap came in second with $25 billion.
Standard Chartered also provided a yearly growth path for Uniswap, predicting it will reach about $6.50 by the end of 2026, $20 in 2027, $40 in 2028, $65 in 2029, and $100 in 2030. If RWA growth continues and trading shifts to decentralized exchanges, Uniswap could capture a large share of trading volume and the associated fees.
A $100 price target looks overly optimistic
There are a few serious issues with Standard Chartered's forecast for Uniswap. It relies on several very optimistic assumptions:
- Tokenized assets go from $51 billion to $4 trillion in less than three years
- DeFi protocols nearly 10x their share of those assets
- Uniswap remains the leading decentralized exchange
I'd give each of those less than a 50% chance of occurring, so the odds are much lower for all three.
CRYPTO: UNI
Key Data Points
Uniswap's all-time high was $45 in May 2021, and it hasn't even topped $20 since that year. At this point, getting above $20 again would be notable for Uniswap. Setting a new all-time high would be amazing for investors. Reaching $100 requires near-perfect execution.
One final problem with the forecast is the steady growth Standard Chartered expects. Cryptocurrencies practically never do that. They soar for a year or two, crash, go through a lengthy bear market, and then repeat the process. I find it hard to believe Uniswap will be worth more every year from 2026 through 2030.
Uniswap is an important part of the DeFi space, as it's the most popular platform for decentralized trading. However, it's highly unlikely to hit $100 by the end of 2030, and it's a risky investment. If you buy any UNI tokens, keep your position small relative to your overall portfolio, and keep your expectations modest.
